Diary

12 Million Democrats voted in the Republican Primaries

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This was my conclusion long ago, that the Democrats were deeply involved in the Republican Primaries. If you remember South Carolina where Trump cleaned up hard, I was shocked. So I did some math, I found that it was typical for Democrats to cross-over, I then predicted the number of voters who would vote in the Democrat Primary. I was the closest of all statisticians in my prediction. In fact many did not even try to guess.

It was not even hard to do. Find the different election cycles that were strongly contested for both sides, examine important races outside of Presidential Cycles as a way to reinforce the numbers, and account for population changes. I came up with a wrong number the first time because I used a trump website to tell me how many votes he got in the Primaries. Yeah I fell for fake news.

However the real numbers should shock people. 12 million Democrats and voters who trend to vote for Democrats voted in the Republican Primaries. In this blog post I am going to teach you how I did the math and let you have a chance to do it yourself.

First use this website http://uselectionatlas.org for understanding the primary numbers. Use google to get population numbers during the primaries we will look at hardest. The years 2000 and 2008 pose the best numbers we can get. Those years both sides ran a real campaign. I say real because usually an incumbent is treated ‘exceptionally’ well by his party. In some States they did not even allow voting for alternatives in the incumbents party which really muddles the results! We are of course comparing it to the 2016 election results.

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You also have to learn how to find statistical information where needed for caucus States, which can be a pain in the backside at minimum to impossible at worst. If in a worst case I suggest you instead use the General Election figures for those States that you cannot get information on over their Primaries.

You also need to know of some of the operations that have occurred in the past such as “Operation Chaos”. This will unfortunately tint your numbers requiring you to do some deeper examination to get some base line numbers. Texas for example was the highest impacted by Operation Chaos with a significant skew voting for Hillary Clinton in the Open Primary there.

Once you have examined the various States you will see that rarely, extremely rarely you might say, is there a significant change in the voter status of a State beyond a few percentage points in the Primaries. You cannot draw straight lines, but you can easily detect a serious trend that is easy to discern.

Once you have established this trend and compared it the answer comes to nearly 12 million. Now the next part is that every statistician does. We modify the data in a process call ‘weighting’. This is where we make any assumptions about the data we feel relevant. I pre-weighted with the population growth of course, but I also threw around some weights based entirely upon the Democrat Primaries.

You see in the Democrat Primaries I found that more cross-over was happening when the polls showed a wide gap. Only where the States were deeply contested between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton was there an obviously lower cross-over rate. This allowed me to do some minor (under 1%) weighting to the results where appropriate. The results were extremely close to 12 million so I rounded to 12 million (in the ten thousand range off from 12 million).

The issue is then… where did these Democrats vote? Well that required one to have been watching, studying, and knowing things. For example Trump was the strongest player (though Kasich did make some moves for Democrats to vote for him a well but his numbers do not support large scale cross-over) in courting Democrats. Further I had, in my position as opposition researcher against Trump and later in other researching duties, been tracking Democrat groups that had been mobilizing to vote for Trump. In my own county, Multnomah (also known as Portland Oregon) I even mocked the Democrats in one of my Facebook groups over their aimed intent to vote for Trump before Ted Cruz dropped out. I told them it could backfire upon them. Guess who is eating crow in Portland right now?

The interesting part is where Trump out performed was usually where those cross-over States existed. Some States, Nebraska for example, lack enough numbers to truly alter a primary, but that is often an exception and not a rule. The numbers were easy to gather, and the data points only reinforced who was getting most of those votes. It was Donald Trump. The only factor was to try to determine how many of the 12 million votes he was obtaining. I called it 9 million from my knowledge and from my skills.

Yes I said it and I stand by it that 9 million Democrats voted for Donald Trump in the Primaries. Perhaps I am wrong about their motives, perhaps it was blue collar workers who hated what the green agenda was doing to their jobs, maybe it was a protest vote for how leftist the party was going, regardless the truth is that 12 million statistically crossed over and probably 9 million voted for Donald Trump.