Lot’s of speculation is going on about the Indiana, Oregon, and New Mexico deal. I, a voice from Oregon, plan to deal with it. I was formerly set as the Multnomah County Captain (Volunteer) for the Ted Cruz campaign. Multnomah County is the most heavily populated and has a number of cities, the two biggest being Portland and Gresham.
Ted Cruz had started setting up a visitation schedule, it was going to be intense due to our mail-in ballot system. Those visits are now cancelled. Kasich is already scheduling visits into Oregon the first being Thursday apparently. Donald Trump was due to be here on the 27th but that event was cancelled and a Pizza Party is now in its place (I still am considering if we should crash it with Cruz shirt wearing supporters, but that would be Trump’s tactics no? But free pizza, hmm, so hard a call).
Furthermore Oregon will not get a campaign office as well, not get commercials, will not get funding. The last portion is our State Leader is being asked to go elsewhere to help the campaign as that would be a ‘problem’.
However Oregon is still Cruz territory, he will not handcuff his grassroots and since we were all volunteers we will continue being grassroots. We charge forth to meet this mission with due gravitas on how serious our mission is. We won’t relax even with this being a fairly solid Cruz State.
What work have we completed in Oregon? We went out and got local leaders early, people from the 5 major factions of the Republican Party in Oregon. We leave Kasich with a lot of leaders it is true, and he can form a real team around them. However we also got the libertarians on board with us (except the Birther portion, approximately 1/3 of the activists). In terms of leadership we have probably secured the top 80%. Our numbers going into the State Convention look good and we continue to recruit up until the last possible minute.
It is sad though, literally we announced our State Launch on Saturday, and on Sunday it is ended. All positions are former positions now, and we are back to “Grassroots”.
We launched with quite a success though, making any effort by the Trump team pale in comparison. They will not get leaders to attend, those leaders are in hiding, not publicly committing to Trump. They will not get a large pool of existing activists, most of those are on the Ted Team, with the next largest pool in the Kasich Kamp. So Oregon remains Ted Cruz land for now.
What the individuals are deciding to do is to talk about either a loose State group of activism or a series of smaller areas that can better work their own needs. I plan to be a major voice on the web, and help get our voice heard regardless of which plan. Others have their local voices, like our Oregon Tea Party, and they will be doing their thing as well. We will not fall silent into the night.
There is more, but I will wait 2 weeks to cover that, I need to finish the website before I really get noisy. Guess I prioritize that now.
I cannot say how New Mexico will handle this change, I am not there, I do not know them, but I do mark them as “Leans Cruz”. Some say “Strongly Cruz”, some say “Leans Trump”, polling is not very good there, but I think from my little bit of study that Leans is probably appropriate.
Still, our internal checks on various leaders, our delegate list, all of this remains in our knowledge. We still plan to take the entire State by Storm. Truth is, this will probably excite enough Kasich supporters to pull some Delegates. I told people before we had this and only Trump and Cruz would get delegates. Well now it is probably 5 Kasich, 6 Trump, and 17 Cruz. This of course based upon my location based knowledge of Oregon.
We will have a harder fight for Delegates now as well. Especially if three people I suspect are going to declare for Kasich really do (Suicide for their long-term prospects, but meh). We could have 1-3 of the pledged (not bound, that is different) end up being Kasich supporters. That’s the blunt honest truth. Now I have a secret weapon in this fight, so losses will be less than any pollster or ‘expert’ expects. Yes I have something good to play.
Have faith in Oregon, we got this.