What does a mathematician do when he is woken up at night? Checks some polls. So true I have no life. I checked how Wisconsin looks and I saw some funny business going on. I also saw some laughable stuff and finally excellent news for us who support Ted Cruz.
First we need to show everyone how bad the Optimus poll was. This was a total push poll of the worst possible sort.
The Optimus Poll was a total Donald Trump push poll, with no effort to even disguise it. This was completed on “Undecided Voters”
Next we have the Emerson poll, which was done using landlines only. It shows Ted Cruz up by 1% over Trump. Sad to say I could not get the data to load to my computer but some of the critiques I found about it indicate it only used the 2012 election data to contact voters, aka it did not include new voter data. With only 439 people contacted (normally a good base) from the 2012 election and using land lines only it would indicate a HUGE portion of new voters was missed. This could exceed 5% in both the Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz fights (Trump and Hillary both do poor in their respective parties with youthful voters).
There there is the Freebeacon poll (pdf). It has some very interesting information in the questions. For instance they ask “What issue or action do you most associate with Donald Trump”. The answers will surprise you
First is immigration at 12.2%. We can expect that. But the following answers come up fast. Big Mouth/Vulgar (6.6%), Fool/Jerk/Wacko/Idiot (6.2%), Arrogant/Ego/Bully 5.4%, Just Don’t Like (5.4%), Dangerous/Scary/Bomba (3.8%), No Qualifications for President (3%), Disagree with views (2.6%), Talks what is popular (1.6%), Bigot/sexist (1.2%), RINO (1%), no plans/no substance (1%), Divider/Divisive (0.8%), Flip Flop (0.6%), Radical/Extremist (0.6%), Protests/Violent/Riots (0.6%), No Experience (0.4%), Over-Promising (0.4%), Dishonest/Don’t Trust (0.2%). Mind you collectively this is 41.4%. Oh and the “Don’t Know” was 12.2%.
Negative comments about Trump made up 41.4% of all comments. Don’t Know made up 12.2%.
Conversely the responses for Ted Cruz as quite thorough. It also had one big surprise at the end. This surprise is important. So we see the obvious, like Conservative, Constitutionalist, and Immigration in the top portions. These all came in under 9% and dwindled quickly. But what stood out the most is that 25.4% said “Don’t Know”. Yes a quarter of the Republican Party said that. However I would also like to point out that the positives for Ted Cruz was 49.6%. His negative comments were only 25% total.
Ted Cruz had a 49.6% positive statement rate, a 25% negative statement rate, and an amazing 25.4% said they “Don’t Know”.
Scott Walker, who just endorsed Ted Cruz was also in the poll. The rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated it would seem. He has a 77.2% favorable rating with 42.4% actually saying a very favorable rating. In that same section we find that favorability of Ted Cruz in Wisconsin as 66% favorable with 23% saying very favorable.
Donald Trump in that same section did not do so well. Only 51.8% find him favorable, of that 25% were very favorable. However his unfavorable was 42% with a 31% very unfavorable (compared with a 11.2% for Ted Cruz in that category).
Trump has the highest unfavorable levels in the poll at 42%
In this poll they of course asked the obvious “Who would you vote for”. The percentages were 36.2% for Ted Cruz, 31.4% for Trump, and 20.8% for Kasich. Mind you Trump polls at 31% in two of these polls including his push poll, and 35% in the Emerson poll which has no youth votes (Which means we can subtract about 3% and add to Ted Cruz in that poll imho). So Trump is yet again fixed near 33% of the population in general. This gets more so if only Ted Cruz and Donald Trump with 47.8% for Cruz and 36.2% for Trump (and 16% undecided).
Ted Cruz leads by about 5% when the polls are adjusted for flaws. There is a 12% undecided rate. Ted Cruz dominates last minute voting.
Another hit on Donald Trump is question 35 which asks if Trump has the right “Temperament” to be President. 59.4% think he does not have the right Temperament. 42% strongly believe he does not. Read that again. 59.4% strong believe he does not then look at his numbers above at 36.2%. We have a maximum altitude for Donald Trump.
59.4% of the Wisconsin voters do not think Trump has the right Temperament to be President.
Now for the funnest part of them all. I saved this for last for a reason. There is a group where Ted Cruz polls amazingly higher than Trump. For that matter all candidates poll much higher than Trump in that segment. That portion of the population was under represented in this poll. It is the 18-40 year old segment which was only in the 15.6%.
Recent events may also further reduce the vote Trump has, but I did not, deliberately did not, go there on adjusting data for his arrested campaign manager, where he hung up on a female radio host for questioning him on his attitude to women, his “functions of the national government”, and his ending his pledge to support the Republican Nominee.
So now to close with a Prediction on how the election will go.
I see the following number ranges possible for each candidate
Ted Cruz 37%-47%
Donald Trump 30%-39%
John Kasich 19% to 26%
Based upon this I also predict the Delegate Counts for the election
Ted Cruz: 30-36
Donald Trump: 6-12
So yes, I am formally calling the election for Ted Cruz and predict that he wins a factual majority of the Delegates of Wisconsin.
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