Diary

A mathematical Analysis of the Election

There is a change coming. It is in the winds, it is in the water, it is making noise and coming our way. That is the result of this series of mathematical proofs I have done. Some of this change is scary, some of it is awesome. You be the judge, I provide the numbers.

OPEN PRIMARIES
Open Primaries still tend to be the bane of the Ted Cruz campaign. The numbers are staggering. I used 2008 figures to detect the potential cross over rate.

New Hampshire – 36,559
South Carolina – 162,701
Arkansas – 98,655
Georgia – 299,633
Massachusetts  – 50,717
Texas* – 1,349,655
Tennessee – 244,682
Vermont – 20,389
Virginia – 203,308
Mississippi – 213,362

Michigan ** may have had up to 400,000ish cross-overs. It is impossible to tell due to the new record of turnout. I am going to predict 150,000 however, keeping in with how other contested States went. .

* Texas is unique that this is from Operation Chaos by Rush Limbaugh in 2008. The actual results are is that he got about 1.35 million Republicans to vote in the Democrat Primary.

** Michigan saw a grand total of 2,519,264 people voting this election. Compared to 2008 when only 1,470,512 people voted. The numbers are staggering. More on this later.

The percentage of Democrats crossing over would be high in many cases
New Hampshire – 2.98%
South Carolina*** – 27.01%
Alabama – 30.85%
Arkansas – 25.05%
Georgia – 2.77%
Massachusetts  – 6.50%
Tennessee – 9.08%
Vermont – 0.51%
Virginia – 28.08%
Mississippi – 11.19%
Michigan – 25%

***These figures do not include my previous growth factor for population and new registrations, so South Carolina is down-rated a bit, their actual results was 33% as discussed in depth in an earlier Facebook Note.

Of interesting note is that the following States were blow outs for one Democrat or one Socialist (sorry for repeating myself):
New Hampshire (Sanders 60.4%)
South Carolina (Clinton 73.5%)
Alabama (Clinton 77.8%)
Arkansas (Clinton 66.3%)
Georgia (Clinton 71.3%)
Tennessee (Clinton 66.1%)
Vermont (Sanders 86.1%)
Virginia (Clinton 64.3%)
Mississippi (Clinton 82.6%)

Of all the States that have Open Primaries only two so far has not had a blow out, but in one was an upset. Bernie Sanders was not supposed to win Michigan. He was listed as having 37.3% of the vote in polls. When his people come out for him he really gets a lot of votes eh? To put this in perspective based on historical voting of 601,219 voters, with a 37.3%, Bernie would have had 224,254 votes. He got 593,563 votes. Hillary would have had 352,915 votes. She got 575,512 votes. The difference is that he had to obtain 59.8% of the “new votes” to win. That would indeed be quite the reversal. This qualifies as a blow out under my system of 60%/40% due to rounding.

Bernie Sanders won Michigan because his machine turned people out, and potentially because Trump is making Democrats want to be involved to fight him, a dangerous trend.

Looking at the others, South Carolina for example, shows that each was a blow out as well. And it was a decisive edge for Trump in each of the cases as cross-over went in deep. The few examples, Georgia for instance, and Vermont, was where important battles were going on. Clinton wanted to win Georgia (20% cut off limit would have given her all of the delegates if she got close to 80%), Vermont was Sanders home State, and the one exception to the rule, Massachusetts which was a 50.1% to 48.7% we had one of the lowest cross-over rates.

All of this evidence supports the idea that supporters are crossing over in record numbers to vote for a candidate on the Republican side. Historically this is always their perceived weakest opponent. That leads us to the next section.


 

Closed Primaries
Iowa is semi-closed, Kansas is closed, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, and more. Nebraska has not voted for the Republicans yet, but you look at the list and you compare the polls to Ted Cruz results and you get some interesting results.

Iowa – 3.7%
New Hampshire – 0.1%
South Carolina 3.7%
Nevada 1.9%
Massachusetts 0%
Virginia – 0.9%
Tennessee – 2.7%
Alaska – 12.4%
Kentucky – 16.7%
Oklahoma – 14.1%
Maine – Potentially 20%
Kansas – 19.2%
Mississippi 19.3%
Idaho – 26.4%
Wyoming – Won in a landslide, potentially 30%? I will call it 20%

That demonstrates that the average  is 10.7% more votes than polls showed Ted Cruz getting (and it is trending upwards). Inside Closed Primary States no one else is able to claim that statistic. The next highest is Kasich at 3.8%. Even more so the Trend from Super Saturday on is 19.35% for Ted Cruz. In that fight Marco Rubio is actually in the negatives for Closed Primaries, Trump is in the negative for Closed Primaries and only Kasich is in the positives, at about 2%.

FUTURE PRIMARIES
So now armed with my load of information on Open and Closed Primaries, on how polling versus results is going, in a most extreme set of details, I am ready to pronounce predictions for all of the upcoming Primary elections. Some of them (the ones closer) will have actual percentages and fairly simple rules.

Yes I said ALL of the upcoming Primary Elections.


 

I have done some math in this, for example this shows the trend for Ted Cruz to out perform the polls. He is in the 20% range above recent polls.

The picture above is one of the math examples you can find on my Facebook Notes. In this example we see Ted Cruz surging in “Results versus Polls”. He was averaging 15% above polls and is now entering the 20% range on average. Will this trend continue?


 

I have a two part range for number predictions when dealing with Ted Cruz. Heavily contested or Open Primary versus Lightly Contested or Closed Primary. These figures are 10% to 20% for the first, and a flat 20%(+) for the latter. I also give Trump +3% in Open and -5% in closed. Finally Marco Rubio gets a flat 2% loss from polls period, and I conclude that he loses 10% of the total amount he would get per a week (So if he was due to get 20% of a vote he then will lose 2%, which is 10% of 20%.). Kasich is neutral in all math except Ohio which is rated special. Some contests with high spending I will further down-rate Donald Trump due to exposure. All results with number predictions will have a MoE of 2% assigned. Some State level modifications will apply.

NOTE! A Winner Take All State usually assigns wins per district or county as well as Party, At Large, and other Delegates. Therefore in “winner take all” do not be surprised by some token delegates for the losers. It is possible I got some of the States rules incorrect, feel free to inform me of errors, I will make corrections. For example Florida is a true winner take all, California is by District.

Florida

In Florida I predict a loss for Rubio. That is almost guaranteed. The part that is in question is how well does Ted Cruz do. Based upon my models, a heavily contested State such as Florida, Ted Cruz should score between 28.6% to 38.6% versus an expected Trump result of 33%-36% and a Rubio result of 22%-26%. TRUMP 99 Delegates

This may seem to be a poor range decision, but I will stand by my method unless proven wrong. So far the math trends in my favor and in Ted Cruz’s favor.

Illinois
This is an open Primary with delegates based upon regions. Trump will do well in many of the regions as Illinois is a very solidly Democrat State. Therefore Trump 34%, Ted Cruz 29%-34% (trend to lower due to heavier mix of Democrats), Rubio 13% and Kasich will be 18%. Ted Cruz can actually win here, but it will require a MoE fix. Ted Cruz 27 Delegates, Trump 39

Missouri
This State has one poll at low levels of people interviewed and a remarkable 7% Margin of Error. I have to account for that. Therefore Trump advantage Open Primary applies, giving him a 32-46% range. Wide because of their MoE. Ted Cruz comes in with 32%-58%, Rubio at 0% (not going to happen) to 14%, and Kasich at 1% to 17%. Prediction: Tight win for Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz 27 Delegates, Trump 15 Delegates

North Carolina
Margin of Error is only an average of about 3.9ish, so no significant issues here. However one poll was run over a month and the other two recent contradict hard. It is “mostly closed” with a 30 day window for registrations. Therefore Trump with a range for 25.6% to 35.6%, Ted Cruz with a 42-52% range, Rubio with 7-17%, Kasich with 5-15%. It looks sloppy, most because the different Trump numbers are stark. However I am putting my seal on Ted Cruz winning this Primary. Ted Cruz 35 Delegates, Trump 30 Delegates

Ohio
This is a State with an asterisk. It is an Open Primary but Kasich is loved by some Democrats for his views. He gets a bump in my book equal to the Trump standard bump. Ted Cruz gets a lower rating also in this State due to heavy competition and open primary. Rubio also directed his supporters to help Kasich for another 3% bump (taking from Rubio’s numbers)

The numbers I have are Trump 33-38%, Kasich 35%-40%, Ted Cruz at 22%-27%, Rubio at 2% (MoE applies). Prediction is Kasich has a narrow win. Kasich 66

Northern Mariana Islands
There is no known polls conducted here, it is widely speculated to be a Ted Cruz victory. I will declare either Ted Cruz or Rubio will win this, Kasich will not and Trump should come in 3rd. Cruz 3

This election day will push Rubio down faster (he will drop even if he wins Florida, the numbers show he lost 1/2 his support after Super Tuesday), will give Kasich his desired home State win, and will set Ted Cruz as the only person able to take on Donald. Note: Donald Trump will likely not attend any future debates because he fears having a one on one with Ted Cruz.

Arizona
This Closed Presidential Preference State is going to be unique. Trump will decidedly not do well here. The only two contenders are going to be Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. I am going to give Ted Cruz a 60% chance to win the State and Marco a 40% chance. I do not see a chance for Donald Trump because the way this State is made up and I know enough insider info about it to make this call. I assign all because when they finally assign out they will want to back the conservative leader. Ted Cruz 58

Utah
The Caucus here does not decide the outcome right away unless there is a clear 60% majority winner. The last poll was in Mid Feb and therefore is not a wise one to use. Due to the system I am going to declare that they will choose Rubio if he is still in that late, or Ted Cruz if Rubio has dropped out. It will be a 2nd place Ted Cruz due to closed caucus status. Ted Cruz ultimately gets these guys I think however so awarding 32 Delegates to Ted Cruz and 8 Delegates to Trump

Wisconsin
No decent polls, high margins of error, most long ago. However it is an Open Primary and therefore Trump will likely take it with Ted Cruz coming in second. Donald Trump 30 Delegates 9 Ted Cruz

New York
The Donald Trump State, a closed Primary. This makes it interesting to examine. Unfortunately only high MoE polls and nothing since March 3rd which would be important to see. At 229 registered voters I just cannot get a feel. I am going to lightly prediction a Trump win with Cruz sitting close (Proportional State so they might nearly tie in delegates). Trump 44 Ted 41

Donald Trump is expected to win New York, but analysis I have seen suggests it shall be far closer in New York than it was in Texas. With a closed Primary there is also going to be a difficulty for Trump to stack the deck. Will this affect downstream Primaries?

Connecticut
Open Primary, same day changes, unless there is a major fight between Hillary and Bernie for the State I am automatically calling it for Trump. Trump 23 Ted 5

Delaware
Delaware is a mostly closed Primary State. There is no polling data but given the proximity of Maine, the Ted Cruz blow outs in closed Primaries I am calling this one for Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz 15, Trump 1

Maryland
Mostly Closed Primary system, Ted Cruz polling close to Trump for this State, I predict a Ted Cruz win, especially since Rubio will have lost a lot of percentage points to Ted Cruz and Kasich may be out at this juncture. Ted 30, Trump 8

Pennsylvania
This one has poor polls, is dated to before the Rubio drop, and is late in season. But it is also a closed Primary… Ted Cruz wins. Soft Pledges make for some change. Ted Cruz 50 Trump 21

Rhode Island
A very powerfully Closed Primary State. Except independents can vote any Party. Hard to say how this impacts the whole. I am assigning 50% to Ted Cruz though, and 43% is the last Trump showed. Yes I am saying a winner is Cruz! Ted 11 Trump 8

By Now if Rubio and Kasich remain, both are in the low single digits and not trending to win any counties or delegates in my opinion. Henceforth I discard them after this date.

Indiana
Closed Primary if you are willing to sue the heck out of the results, otherwise kinda half and half. No polls, big population, late voting. I am going to declare Ted Cruz for the win however due to campaign infrastructure, closed advantages, Rubio and Kasich should be defeated or so diminished they have no impact. Ted 48 Trump 9

Nebraska
Open, advantage Trump, but so late in the game that Ted Cruz should win it. Ted Cruz 33 Donald Trump 3

West Virginia
Closed Primary, late in the game, Ted Cruz wins. Ted Cruz 31 Trump 3

Oregon
For every Trump supporter in Oregon there is about 3 Ted Cruz supporters and 1 establishment voter. Oregon is going to be united behind one candidate for this election, and our votes will actually be appreciated. Shocking! Yes Ted Cruz for the landslide. Ted 23 Trump 5

I am very happy with my fellow Oregon Team members for Cruz, we have achieved seemingly improbable things with regards to the various leaders here. I look forward to meeting Ted Cruz when he comes here.

Washington
This is endgame stuff. Rubio is out, Kasich is long gone, Ted Cruz has had a chance to rack up significant wins, and the Washington system is fairly closed sounding. I am going to declare Ted Cruz the winner. Ted Cruz 38 Trump 6

California
If anyone doubts how Ted Cruz is doing here, don’t… The numbers are going to be sick. Ted Cruz wins for sure. the biggest prize of them all. There are 3 delegates per congressional district, with 53 districts total. There is 10 base and 3 party as well. I think Trump wins 5 districts for 15. Trump 15, Ted Cruz 167

It is very possible that at this stage, with California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota voting that people will lock step vote for Ted Cruz as the nominee.

Montana
These guys are libertarian. An example of this is Maine. End game, and while Democrats will try to interfere I expect a Ted Cruz win. Ted Cruz 26 Trump 1

New Jersey
End Game, closed Primary, not going to be a loss, Ted Cruz wins. 42 Ted, 9 Trump

New Mexico
End Game, Mormons and other conservatives, strong in the way for Ted Cruz. 18 Ted, 6 Donald

South Dakota
I expect fully this State will fall to Ted Cruz. 28 Ted Cruz, 1 Trump

The total gains are Trump +384 Delegates, and Ted Cruz +765 Delegates

But wait there is more! Colorado is there with 37 delegates, Virgin Islands with 9, Ted won 1 of 5 from Guam that I did not include (all 5 for Ted), 9 from America Samoa (8 for Ted) and then some of the silly catching up delegates from Iowa (6), New Hampshire (-6), (Georgia 2, -2) Oklahoma…

There is another approximately 50 votes added to the Ted Cruz rolls and 30 to Trump (this is an estimation, I am not going to get all of the delegate counts down to the exacts).

Ted Cruz therefore adds 815 Delegates to 370 for 1185 and Trump gets 415 to his 460 for 875. I also will toss Carson’s votes to Donald Trump for an additional 8 (total now 883). To be very clear, Ted Cruz will have 1185 Delegates to the Donald Trump 875 Delegates.

51 Delegates is all that would separate Ted Cruz from the nomination in my math. That is very close and just a single upset could actually change the entire outcome!

So the Ted Cruz campaign needs only to pull an extra 51 delegates out to win. So expect fights for New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Indiana, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Other late States like Oregon and Washington will also potentially be battle grounds.

Mind you this is with Ted Cruz gaining in votes versus polls. When the polls are finally corrected to allow for this variation it will probably have a profound effect on Trump supporters. Additionally as Ted Cruz over takes Donald Trump it is possible that Trump drops out. Also possible is that those supporting Trump because he seems a front runner will help make Ted Cruz the decisive winner when he passes Trump

Final considerations include Kasich (140 delegates?) and Rubio (200 delegates?). Trump would have to seriously bribe them both to get them (not happening with Rubio I expect). Therefore how do they play? People may expect them to stay in the campaigns, and possibly they may. Really they may. If Rubio does he will keep getting lower and lower figures as people leave him. It is inevitable because he will be seen as having no realistic chance and people do not want a loser to steal an election.

Kasich could stay in, and maybe just not even campaign, just hoping that some will vote for him. Yeah it is possible, Kasich after all never really had realistic aims of being President, the common analysis is he wants Vice President and he thinks the math supports someone needing to add him to their team. I think he ultimately joins Trump as only Trump will make that offer in my mind, but who knows.

If there is a convention then expect Trump and Cruz to be the options and for supporters of both to be willing to declare civil war if the Republicans try a brokered convention. It would be ugly to even propose such, beyond the pale, after approximately 87% of the Republican Party voted against the Establishment. Do not risk this assessment. The mood by then will be ugly beyond the reckoning of pundits and politicians.

Seriously do not risk a brokered convention. Do not try to force Rubio, Kasich, or a lesser candidate on us if they are not in the top 2. The Trump people will sit the election out (even 25% of them means no Republican win in the General) and there could be a permanent factual split in the party, like the Republicans leaving the Whigs.

So therefore it is my conclusion that Ted Cruz will fight hard for the remaining 51 delegates then accept a contested convention where he will surely receive at least 51 votes from the Rubio, Kasich, Paul, Fiorina, and Jeb teams. I further conclude this is what the Kasich and Rubio teams are seeing which is why they are both fighting so doggedly. It could be that they both want Vice President but have no realistic expectations except to force a Unity Ticket in the Convention.

It is also my conclusion that Trump does not have the means to make it to the end and win everything. Even with the Democrats assisting he cannot cross the threshold even in worst case events. To be clear, Trump cannot win the primary outright.

 

I will of course be posting new predictions as polling data becomes more available in later elections.

Side note… I think Bernie Sanders can win if his followers stop voting in the Republican Primary. He clearly can bring the support but it appears they think he will lose therefore they are voting as spoilers in the Republican Open Primaries. My basic (I am not going into depth) prediction is he passes the threshold in April if he can get his followers to vote him at all costs.

Other factors to include but not enough information: Donald Trump riots, Hillary potential Indictment, Trump potential Fraud conviction (which will start an FBI investigation and a hearing if he loses the election), Carson betrayal factor, Rubio losing Florida could cost him financial support and half of his remaining votes per State, the media effect if Rubio drops out, Trumps many flaws finally having an impact, Kasich staying in to try to get more delegates, and Kasich failing to get on multiple State Primaries (Illinois and Pennsylvania).

I am Michael Harrington, and if you are reading this you are part of the resistance. They will never give up, but we are winning, stay true, fight well, and we the conservatives will overcome the enemy!
I am Michael Harrington, and if you are reading this you are part of the resistance. They will never give up, but we are winning, stay true, fight well, and we the conservatives will overcome the enemy!