Diary

Ted Cruz surge is identified, will win election, Republican Polls

Ted Cruz has been dominating the polls recently. Every time the polls say he is going to perform X, he outdoes them with two minor exceptions.

NewUpdateMath

As seen in the graphic above Ted Cruz has been outdoing the Republican Polls by 15% or higher on average. In two cases we could not identify how much higher because of lack of Polls, these are Hawaii and Maine. However an examination of his wins shows either an extreme bias in the polls, or that the vote is always breaking for one candidate when it comes time to pull the lever.

An example of some of the differences, these are how much higher Ted Cruz did in actual results above the polls (RCP Average, last month or so only used)

Idaho    26.40%
Mississippi    19.30%
Kansas    19.20%
Kentucky    16.70%
Oklahoma    14.10%
Alaska    12.40%
Louisiana    10.10%

I would say it is probably fair that if it was polled Maine would be in that list as well.

In a previous effort I identified that 33% of Democrats in S. Carolina voted in the Republican Primary. This trend in Open Primaries has continued unabated by all appearances. Ted Cruz continues to dominate in closed Primaries after all.

totalpolls

This gives the break down of all the different polls (RCP) versus Results per State. There is an obvious bias or a surge that happens at election time for Ted Cruz in 90% of all the elections, where this is 52% for Trump and 47% for Rubio. The differences in scale however are also obvious. The Rubio and Trump trends are far lower than the Trends for Ted Cruz, especially recently in the election.

Given this disparity I am even going so far as to automatically predict a 15% minimum increase for Ted Cruz in all Closed Primaries and a minimum increase of 5% in all Open Primaries going forward. I am also going to start down-rating Marco Rubio by 2% from any polls going forward as he is not performing. I will make an exception only for Florida.

I further predict that Marco Rubio will not be able to create a contested Convention. He and Kasich will not be able to steal enough electoral votes at this level to significantly impact the election. Simply put their declines are significant, steady, and unlikely to change.

Ted Cruz appears to be ready for a narrow win based upon existing polls and these calculations. However this win will increase in depth with the drop outs of Marco Rubio and John Kasich. March 15th should see Illinois and North Carolina for Ted Cruz in my models, he will undoubtedly also out perform in Florida, Ohio, and Missouri. I give Ted Cruz a 33% chance to win either Ohio or Florida based upon the premise that Marco Rubio is in collapse, that most Ben Carson voters went to Ted Cruz, and that Donald Trump does worse in Closed Primary States.

Sadly due to media bias you will not see these results in any of the mainstream media. Nor even in the Unfair and Disbalanced Fox News. I hope they change their ways soon and start giving Ted Cruz a proportional amount of time and more positive stories. I shall however be providing ongoing analysis and reports on the Open Primary issue, the statistics no one else wishes to report, and actual predictions on the outcomes of elections to come.