Cruz polled behind by 5-7 points in the final batch of 7-8 polls heading into Iowa, and proceeded to win there. He beat expectations, even though the media played up Marcomentum. He did so even with the entire ethanol lobby against him.
In closed primaries and caucuses, Cruz is fairing well, Donald is winning the open version susceptible to mayhem from crossover voting. Cruz added a blowout 17% win in TX, a 6 point decision in neighboring, but different, OK, too.
He outperformed on ST despite the media ignoring him and his revised stumping, as the talking heads chose to cover the ultimately unwise decision to go juvenile by Rubio with playground insults against Trump.
Then, he managed to stop the queen of Wasilla’s plans for a Donald victory in Alaska, despite the biggest turnout of like, all time, where one would have thought for sure that that fact would bring in enough new voter zombies to defeat Ted.
Cruz has shown himself to be the true challenger to Trump, though it’s getting mighty late in the day to beat momentum and herding psychology now gathering downhill for Donald. Cruz has many more delegates than Rubio, not way off from Trump, and wins on March 5-8 will only help that if he can get a one on one fight going in time.
He showed nuance, both in the debate, and placed 2nd in most key places on ST, outperforming expectations yet again and distancing himself from Rubio in putting up actual stoppages of Trump. He’s proven to be stronger, and kidding thyself over that by arguing in a vacuum that it’s false over the concept of Cruz not being able to win in more moderate areas is bunk.
Critics are wrong, as usual, claiming that the south portion of the calendar is mostly done, so that means the rest of the WTA contests are more favorable to Rubio, demographically and ideologically by region and assuming Cruz will struggle in comparison to win many more contests given that map.
Writers here, and elsewhere made the error for weeks in assuming somehow Rubio would be alive to compete later without a massive herding instinct in place which would make people ignore him, which is just the luck of the timing and spacing of the primaries he hoped to win in as that prospect competed with the ever growing inevitability aura Donald was sure to sport as he gradually won contests heading into those hypothetical clashes with Rubio on March 15.
This is a common error, looking at the makeup of states and failing to take into account dynamic factors, the most important of which being simple momentum of a leader and the expanding urge of voters to unite out of party solidity and wanting to “back a winner” and not “waste my vote” etc.
Rubio was and is the victim of the dates of the contests, even though he and his supporters assumed that was advantageous, in a situation like this it rarely is. It’s true he’s trailing now, but he will be down even worse by election day almost by force.
Cruz would have done a lot better on ST (Akansas?) if Carson and Rubio had dropped out earlier. And he, not Rubio, was all along the person most likely to be able to challenge, due to “his” style states coming before total “inevitability assumption” took effect. He did well considering the entire media was against him and ignored him, and Rubio under performed despite tons of official endorsements and the media being more favorable to him and the Establishment fully behind him going into ST.
Now, it’s gathering so much momentum, that even if Rubio and Carson leave, Cruz will have to fight to the death and be lucky to pull anything off. He might get lucky over more racism charges, and the NYT immigration secret files, etc. but it’s a toughie.
If everyone had rallied really early around Cruz, right after Iowa and the first loss, and Rubio had not split with Cruz in SC, Cruz might have pulled off the win there. Now Donald is getting an even higher ceiling, and it’s only going to get worse.
Kasich argues he will pull out if he “cannot win OH ya gotta win your own home state” etc. but fails to see you gotta win OTHER states earlier (in most cases) to set that contest up and to be in some reasonable concurrent delegate fight to with the leader. You cannot just win your home state and declare victory. The person win a chance must win at home AND they must have pre-existing wins (several at least) prior to that to make a case work logically and psychologically.
Cruz has that. Rubio just won once on March 1, and that’s already too late. He cannot expect to use that seriously as a justifying tool for a FL showdown. You have to at least appear to be reasonably close in the current delegate fight to make a case for why you should continue and others should drop out, since splitting the votes works for nobody unless a brokered convention cannot possibly be avoided.
For the best chance to stop Trump, Rubio cannot continue to split votes with Cruz, if the latter is to successfully challenge Donald going forward. Cruz has winnable contests in states that are not unfriendly turf in composition coming up shortly.
If he wins there, the momentum effect and having no other than Trump to split votes with will result in competitiveness in other states thought previously unreachable by Cruz.
Kansas, Kentucky, Lousiana, Mississippi, & Idaho are all states Cruz needs a near one on one to win against Trump in. He cannot expect to overcome the only more deafening catcalls of inevitability from the media over Trump with a divided field.
The sooner (to a degree) those come the better for Cruz, who again is lucky that they are not coming much later.
Rubio will never have enough to time to get to March 15 before his springboard of a hopeful WTA win in FL arises. Cruz was lucky the map worked as it did, giving him at least a bit of a shot to pull something off and to slow the avalanche down. If Rubio wins at this point, he does not help much, because we need ONE clear choice keeping pace, not a split grouping hoping for a brokered convention with the party taking it away from Trump even is he’s leading but does not have the entire amount.
It would destroy the party, and prevent that wounded candidate from winning in November anyway.
Cruz, not only by default given his already existing wins as the map continues to fill in with the more timely delegate near parity with Trump, but by performance is the only logical choice.
Only Cruz can seriously compete with Donald and only he has shown a real ability to decisively beat him in several contests.
Rubio’s decision to keep going will only result in diluting the vote and making sure what little chance Cruz still has is lost.
If he’s a patriot, he needs to take one for the team and bow out at once.
He cannot wait until FL, then decide, because that will be too late for helping Cruz pull several of these contests out mono e mono. His staying in gives Trump the divided field he needs to avoid Cruz winning a majority of them and psychologically stopping the assumption that it’s totally over already even before the WTA states come in droves by March 15.
Cruz needs to immediately offer him the VP slot, and then they can tag team in events in the above 5 states in different parts at the same time over the coming days as a unity ticket, with each man making their own pitches. Then Cruz, with Rubio attached, will perhaps pull out more wins to keep the momentum slowing process going until we dig up more White Supremacist stuff on his and finally find a smoking gun. Trump is starting to be exposed, but we need more time. Even sites like American Thinker, who saw most of their comments fields full of Trump propaganda, are starting to turn.
It’s a great ticket, and the only way we can have a real non-fantasy way of stopping Trump without destroying the party and losing anyway on that division via floor fight trickery attempts.
Cruz can lecture on the stump in his style, talking about stagnant wages, and blue collar worker themes, while Rubio can do similarly with his greater style flair and charisma to balance out the ticket. I suggest neither he not try to find some pick like Kasich to add Executive experience, but go with Rubio since he’s a bridge to Hispanics as well, countering the trouble we are all being plastered with via Trump over immigration issues and fears of xenophobia complexes.
Trump is a loser in a general, because exit/entrance polling in VA, a key swing state, showed the participants there would not be happy with him as a nominee choice, though he cobbled a win together with the open primary crossovers. He cannot have that kind of dark sign on him in November when it’s time to gather up the base to offset that of the left’s own version.
If you support Rubio, switch to Cruz at once, to give him reason not to try to win in FL by virtue of the one win in MN, that’s not enough, he has not shown enough momentum and staying power, and the delusion that he can safely wait to at least March 15 needs to be broken. Rubio might decide to correctly drop out in advance if those numbers shift clearly to Cruz in a few days.
I don’t think he should even wait and show up to the debate Thursday, because those voters need to be freed up for Saturday.