Emerson College is out with this poll heading into the vote today in Iowa.
A few takeaways:
Only 1 point separates the Trump +1 over Cruz. That means Cruz might indeed pull it out if his ground game is up to the task, and you and your friends who live in Iowa caucus for him and take as many others with you as possible to vote against Trump.
Rubio has emerged as the the only person in third. He will be the choice if Cruz later falters, and he will be pushed by the media over a third place finish as being the “electable” choice, etc.
Lastly, the decision to miss the debate has hurt Trump, with several polled citing this as a reason to vote against him. That may be a reason for Cruz coming back late to catch The Donald.
For Trump, the results represent a 6-point drop in just 10 days. In an Emerson poll released on January 21, Trump won 33% of the vote. His decline appears to be Rubio’s gain; during the same 10-day period, Rubio was up 8 points from 14%. The poll found that Trump’s decision to skip the last Republican debate had a negative impact on his support. Nearly four out of 10 likely GOP caucus participants (39%) said they were less likely to vote for Trump as a result of the boycott, while 14% said his absence made it more likely they would vote for him. Fifty-two percent (52%) said it would have no impact on their vote. “Since our January 21 poll, Trump’s favorability has decreased by 10 points,” said ECPS data analyst Matt Couture. “His decision to skip the debate seems to be a factor in this decrease.”
We have to hope this poll is more accurate than others being touted by the press!