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A mistake many are making in this cycle consists of confusing a primary voting landscape with a general election.
Democrats, like it or not, given prevailing trends in places like Virginia, and perhaps including CO and NV, have an electoral edge in the map dynamic.
What this means in simple terms is Democrats generically have an easier more realizable route path to 270 as an assumption.
To win, a Republican literally MUST carry OH and FL both, and even then he/she may not pull it out, especially if Virginia is lost. To see why, and to observe the math in start terms, visit 270towin.com and use the states that the GOP has typically one in recent years along with those for the enemy.
What you appreciate at once is there is a lot less room for error for the Republican candidate in getting there.
As Mark Levin has been pointing out lately by reading polling internals in both the primaries and among general election participants, Trump’s “likability” scores are breathtakingly bad for a prospective nominee who is not running as an incumbent. Tons of Republicans are even saying they will not vote for him if he wins the nod, one of whom is a big name at RedState!
He not only is unlikely to compete in places like Wisconsin or PA or other recent “teaser” loss venues in recent presidential contests, it’s hard to see him even matching the usual numbers and state holds in the Fall. His favorable scores are simply too low, and he’s viewed as an embarrassment by too many for comfort or confidence.
The top lines and internals are mind-blowingly abysmal for this candidate.
By way of comparison, both Cruz and Rubio are easier sells for almost any match-up they would face.
Female voters have made up a majority in these elections since like 1984, supposedly.
If he/she wins, the GOP nominee is looking at what are likely to razor thin majorities in FL and OH. Something on the order of 200K votes or well less.
The Democrat can put a thumb on scales if lots more than even the usual larger number (compared to men) females show up. This can be accomplished most easily with single, younger women.
How do you do that?
Well, you hype up a “war on women” and convince them to show up in anger or fear or both of the Republican. If Hillary is the nominee, the media will be all in the tank for her as the “first woman to be commander in chief” etc. as a backdrop.
The usual foil for the DNC is to portray the GOP nominee as extreme on birth control access, abortion rights, who is hopefully openly religious in a way that seems to demand big policy changes that are socially conservative. They would really push this if Rick Santorum was the nominee, or possibly Huckabee.
I’m not agreeing with the left on any of our guys, I’m just explaining what they would try to do in terms of framing the debate.
Trump’s fans are swallowing a new line from him that suggests he’d compete even for New York (!) and other places outright.
This is almost certainly purely delusional.
The problem is many Republicans are not being realistic about his relative chances in a national contest. They actually believed he was the best shot at pulling it off in the field according to one late October poll. During that period, both Rubio and Cruz were showing better numbers across the board against either Hillary or Bernie!
Women (especially single and young) vote as a group typically to the left, and they will this time if Trump is the nominee because he’s a walking ad poster for the “war on women meme”, etc.
It’s much harder to make this case stick against Cruz, or even Rubio, though the latter is more openly religious in a proud way which the left will try to spin. It has to be couched in generalities for opponents like them, most likely.
With Trump, you have a greatest hits machine that could rival Fleetwood Mac in album sales in the upper 1970s.
He has suggested female sexual conquests and bragged about bagging, if you will, even married women. He’s suggested he’d go after his own daughter if she was not related to him in a joke. He did this more than once, unbelievably. See his book, the Art of the Comeback. Already the media trying to shape this story for later use if he wins the nomination.
This alone might not work the desired effect, but in this campaign he’s attacked (or appears to have) Fiorina’s face, suggested Hillary’s bathroom break was “disgusting” and alluded to menstruation from Megyn Kelly. He’s attacked breast feeding on similar grounds of “disgust” etc.
Do you see how these video moments in time or issued statements can be looped in a 30 second ad buy for critical swing states like OH and FL by team Hillary spending millions to run them 24/7?
They will use the clip of Fiorina who said “I think women heard exactly what you said Mr. Trump!” as the closer, using a GOP female, no less, to present their case.
They can add film of him gesticulating supposedly as a disabled reporter for good measure to show how indecent he is.
He can win a primary where Rubio Carson and Cruz divide their votes, but not in a national election with a wide swath of women participating. It’s going to take a lot of new voters excited about his candidacy to overcome these gaffes.
It’s before the first vote in Iowa, and already the left has begun to define him as the most anti-woman nominee ever for us.
Currently, the media is making jokes about Trump because they want him to be “installed” as the nominee, then they will assist the DNC with looping his comments on stuff like the above and demonizing him to help him lose the general. They practically selected him for us by mentioning his name like on a 20-1 basis compared to anybody else running or even all of them combined. That makes his name resonate for selection purposes by LIV’s. They are being brainwashed. That’s the plan…