Diary

Electability myths versus FACTS!

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For generations, the squish brigade of the GOP has squealed over electability.

Somehow, they always conveniently argue that a full spectrum conservative, like Reagan, or now Cruz-cannot win a GENERAL ELECTION.

So, they keep using their often rigged system to foist a seemingly endless series of W. Willkies, Landons, Deweys, Fords, Doles, McCains, Romneys, etc. on us, usually with the same disastrous results.

The reality is, they are not conservatives. They never have been and they feel our views are embarrassing.

They are Rockefeller Republicans. East Coat Establishment Blue Bloods. Henry Cabot Lodge squishes.

It never changes. All you gotta do is search Google Newspapers for old clips from any major news rag on the rise of Reagan, and the usual RINOS are there, wanting to paint in pale pastels, warning us of impending doom if we redneck heathens disobey.

In 1964, they practically hurled insults on the floor of the Cow Palace at Barry Goldwater, in denial of his existence.

Which faction of the party are not team players? Is it the us or them? 

Which of us is now threatening to support Trump, if that means stopping Cruz?

Which of us held our noses for McConnell over Grimes?

Which of us bailed on a winnable race involving Cuccinelli in Ohio, letting corrupt Clinton stooge McAuliffe prevail?

Which of us became no better than leftists in smearing true believers in the Thad Cochran debacle in Mississippi?

Fact is, the conventional wisdom is WRONG.

You win in the general by strongly having your BASE of loyalists on board, then you reach out to moderates and Indies after that is securely tucked away!

See Bush, 2004, for instance.  Some even have argued Obama did this in 2008, maybe even in 2012.

In 2012, Romney won a ton of Indies, but he did not over perform enough with his own theoretical base to pull it off.

Of course, Reagan was a sure loser, according to the experts in both 1976 and 1980. There was even a “draft Ford” movement to enlist the loser in the first race against Carter because they panicked over Ronnie being unelectable! Many famous names today and in recent times are still around who were in that camp, by the way, I suggest you Google it!

When you do what the “experts” tell you, what actually happens is the base is less enthused, shows up less, offsetting the gain independents, or they do not work as hard to help as foot soldiers in the ground games statewide in key swing states!

You are better off branching out by walking the tightrope by pivoting back to the middle for the general, not actually selecting a moderate candidate, and acting the part to get the votes of LIV’s and Indies who you court with a secure base.

If Bernie faced Cruz in the Fall, the supposed 2 most “extreme” candidates, ONE of them, running under the major ticket will win. Not a 3rd party. That could even happen, if Clinton keeps tanking as she is now in the polls!

But even if Cruz faced Clinton, or an even more moderate appearing Democrat, there is no proof he’s a loser. In fact, he’s doing as well or better than Rubio is against her in some latest polls. You cannot look at those this far out and be sure in any direction.

Anybody can beat anybody if they are on either major ticket side.

Right now, the Democrats seem to have an electoral map landscape edge in routes to 270. But while true, the current mood is against them given the 8 year itch factor and that their leading options are either weak and unlikable or can be painted with a socialist label if it’s Bernie.

Any Republican, including Cruz, could beat them.

But it helps to have the ideological base on board with enthusiasm. Imagine the Democrats sending up some moderate and expecting their base to vote in enough numbers to swing the outcome in what shapes up to be razor thin margins in OH & FL.

Even the most likable candidate does not always win the popular vote. Gore did against Bush. Nixon won over Humphrey. It’s a complex cocktail, the decision of the broader electorate to endorse one person over the other, but it’s not whether he or she is a moderate or a true believer. Who connects best in the right areas with voters in that particular cycle prevails.

We’ve tried enough moderates. It’s time for a change because the definition of insanity is doing the same thing every time and expecting a different outcome…