Diary

Please forward these tips to the Cruz campaign on how to topple Trump for the nomination!

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Since the rise of Trump, opponents in the primary and even the media have tried everything to get him to falter, expecting each day would be the “one” that saw him “go too far” and botch it.

Needless to say, it has not worked.

It won’t work and he will win it all if Cruz, his only serious foe at this point for a host of reasons not limited to but helped by his Iowa polling numbers, fails to learn from the recent past.

1.) Insulting his supporters does not work.

That’s obvious, and in part due to human nature. Faced with ridicule, they grip ever tighter. It does not matter what the truth is, this is simply psychology, which, after all, defines many aspects of campaigns, from perceptions by potential supporters who reject someone like Cruz because they assume he’s less electable than Rubio, to primal responses to what they imagine to be “Alpha Male” tendencies in their hero Trump which makes them assume only HE can fight the corrupt Washington cartel.

2.) Saying he’s boorish and disgusting will not work, at least in the primaries. 

See reason 1 for why. His supporters again defensively respond by claiming it’s good to be as anti-P.C. as possible and interpret that as an attack on THEM and their intelligence, judgement, etc. Facts, again, do not matter. This is all psychology here.

3.) Calling him a jerk will not work. 

See bullet points one and two. Psychology again. His faithful re-interpret the latest Jeb! attack as a badge of honor. Psychology!

4.) Calling him a racist, homophobe, Islamophobe, anti-woman, etc. will not work NOW in the primaries.

Middle America is fed up.

They are sick and tired of being labeled racists so much that they are just numb to it, assume (actually correctly sort of) that they will be called such, so we might as well let the dam break and pick a guy who blows the Overton Window to shreds.

The “Nationalist” sentiment is on the rise in Europe, even Sweden, where folks hardly right wing in temperament are rebelling against their political “rulers” and are giving them the middle finger steadily. Understanding Trump is not that hard, really.

The useless GOPe gave birth to the candidacy of the Idiocracy idol, The Donald. Pro-lifers work to elect the leadership, who respond by dumping them even on a bill that was publicly popular. The frustration with everything from abortion to spending to corruption is so palpable now that many in the base as well just want to burn it all down to the ground in vengeance, salting the Earth where it ignited and hoping for the Sweet Meteor ‘O Death as an option if the Establishment finds a way to survive.

As such, appeals that usually might have a shot simply do not elicit traction.

As Iowa approaches, Trump realizes he can not simply allow a rip in the armor to pierce his veneer of invulnerability to even one loss early on the way to winning the delegates. If he loses there, he cannot project his image of strength in a general election and as the choice of the angry mob without some risk of being derailed.

If Cruz picks up steam and wins big in Iowa, he might be helped in NH and SC. He is NOT similarly situated to other winners like Huckabee and Santorum, who could not gain later victories due to having no money in the bank, among other reasons. It’s NOT true that *all* GOP nominees fail to win Iowa but simply get the nod with a NH and SC victory dance. Dole did it in 1996, GWB did it in 2000, for example. Bolstered by someone like Haley locally in conjunction with coming in possibly 2nd in NH on momentum could deliver SC to Ted. If Trump can stop Cruz right now in Iowa, he can coast to the nomination, but might lose to Cruz otherwise.

Hence, the “Birther” attacks and now the Goldman Sachs digs.

By using more psychology, Trump and the Establishment alike want to raise doubt in the base about his eligibility, which, although Redstate may scoff, might cause just barely enough of a peel off to swing the balance once it’s coupled with the “threat” of Democrats using it against him in a general election. A judge, they hope to scare people into believing, could be bought off if even need be, to *take Cruz off message* DURING October with close polls to Hillary, or even could try to deny him standing to keep running, thus throwing the race into chaos, causing the Democrats to win by the confusion at the 11th hour!

The other “charges” are to divide and conquer by making him just another rich guy, so there is no reason to hold that against the billionaire from reality television in choosing between them, and to make the public and particularly Trump supporters stick with him in actually pulling the lever by rationalizing that Donald is already rich himself, and cannot be bought by influential donors, which is something everyone is already peeved about. IOW, Ted is just another politician with corporate masters, where as Donald is able to be his own man for real, since he’s able to finance himself, etc.

Read this until your eyes bleed:

TRUMP SUPPORTERS ARE MOTIVATED MOSTLY BY RAGE ALONG A FEW, VISCERAL ISSUES. IF THEY PERCEIVE, LOGICALLY OR RATIONALLY NOTWITHSTANDING, THAT THOSE ARE BEING MET BY THE DONALD THEY WILL DEFEND HIM AND THEIR COUNTERPRODUCTIVE CHOICE TO THE END, IF THEY ASSUME NO VIABLE ALTERNATIVE EXISTS. PERIOD! THEY DO NOT CARE ABOUT DEPTH, ONLY THEIR SHORTLIST.

All you have to do to verify this is visit any number of sites we all know exist on the “conservative” side from American Thinker to Legal Insurrection on down. Even people who are ALSO social cons and fi-cons are supporting him despite his flaws.

The song and dance is almost identical. They argue all politicians, even Cruz, are able to be bought and will thus betray citizens which makes his personal wealth an ace in the sleeve. They argue that nobody is serious about borders EXCEPT him. They argue ALL issues flow from that, because once the makeup of the population changes, those other issues, including gun control, will be lost eventually via demographics-left unchecked-anyway.

So, the critical thing NOW is to cut off immigration, hopefully outright.

They ignore the obvious flaws in their reasoning, such as imminent SCOTUS picks that have to be aced by someone who is a true believer that will have 30+ year implications and may be upwards of 4 selections. It’s just as simple as they think it is.

But…

They only see their version of reality.

They are hoping Trump will do at least ONE of the “big things” he is promising, which, in their minds, makes his being the nominee and if elected the president-worthwhile. It does not matter if he’s a progressive by history. It’s difficult reasoning with these folks since they are not looking correctly at the big picture and are placing too much faith in a person who is likely merely telling them what they want to hear when they want to hear it to get elected.

The irony is he’s another Obama, and they, having a Cruz in the pocket, are about to waste a once in a lifetime chance!

You know people are not being rational when Phyllis Schlafly even supports someone like Trump, given his probable flaws and reliability as any kind of meaningful conservative, considering the downside of our reputations and beliefs being distorted, causing us to likely lose credibility with the electorate for generations and being cartoon characterized by the left in perpetuity.

People want a super anti-P.C. voice from an Alpha Male who will take on the role from Network and shout from the windows how mad they are and that they will not take any more of being ignored. That’s the candidacy of Trump, brought together by a perfect storm of Obama’s lawlessness and the GOPe’s fecklessness.

Trump is a monster created by the landscape he finds himself in at this precise moment in time during history. If this had been almost any other cycle, he would not be at 1% in the polls, much less leading.

Let’s turn now to the approach needed by Cruz tonight and in the coming days:

A.) He cannot use this “New York values” thing as a leading argument, only a minor side issue.

That does not impress any Trumpet since they do not care if he’s conservative, and openly say so, including several folks who *are* and still support him, warts and all since they believe he’s the only option even with Cruz in the race. Now Trump is using New York to call 9/11 an example of patriotic American values! Who can argue with that?

Trump depends on his bumper sticker fodder of “Make America Great Again” slogans aimed at the lowest common denominator. He’s proving critics of Cruz right in that he is too clever by a half, and may be too smart and educated to resonate with the general public. Being captain of the debating team might help against HRC, but he has to win the nomination first!

A recent web page found that Ted is the most educated  candidate on any side in this election. Ask Stevenson how he fared against Eisenhower’s “egghead” strategy. The smartest guy is not always the most popular, which means he needs to realize that connecting with people emotionally is the best thing almost every time. Most elections are won there, not with logic.

B.) The secret of beating Trump may lie in exposing his sincerity coupled with out-Trumping many of his positions SHORT TERM whereupon Cruz can pivot back as needed for the general.

Ted’s list of options are, as a total basic package, as follows:

1.) Paint a picture of Trump showing he’s actually an amnesty supporter, using his past quotes as proof that he’s only acting hard-line short term to get in office. Once in, he will NOT even TRY to seriously build a wall, and his own words allow them to come back IN if law abiding. Ted needs to ratchet up his claim that his past positions are not proof of his sincerity, but that he is sincere and go to the RIGHT of Trump on immigration as an offering. He must say again with relentless force that he, unlike Trump, will not allow border violators a path to citizenship and will deport them more than temporarily. As long as his base believes he is SINCERE about trying to build a wall, etc. they will support him. Cruz must cast doubt on his sincerity itself.

2.) He’s a liberal HRC plant or might as well be, and that will figure into his actual actions and policies as POTUS.

He is a Democrat in every way imaginable, who is posing short term for personal benefit on everything from being able issue Executive Orders that might help him financially on down. Electing him is *worthless* to Nativists and all non-liberals.

3.) Loop the comments on women, disabled reporters, banning Muslims, etc. showing that it WOULD likely increase the margins of female voters, handing the election to Democrats, almost by force in a non-primary. Imagine those 30 second ads running in FL and OH when the GOP is already at an election map disadvantage on paper, according to experts, etc. He’s not electable objectively, etc.

4.) Show the public that Cruz is a smarter option to message without conceding premises via P.C. speech codes than is Trump. He’s a loose cannon that ultimately loses for us in the public perception battle because he’s not smart enough to judge threading the needle or even when that *must* be done with precision in any given specific situation.

We all love the idea of refuting claims of us all being anti-woman neanderthals who are bigots. While Trump makes all of us feel good short term, he’s so non-nuanced to the point of self inflicting wounds, long term. His contribution to moving the Overton Window by smashing it was good in a vacuum, but the media is owned by liberals, and we have to destroy them with more nuanced arguments that refute their premises without giving the left lay-ups.

Cruz can do that.

He’s already done it TWICE with the Monkey Cartoon and the Snow Angel videos, and he can be the smarter, more nuanced and less prone to being cartooned with fence sitters, etc.

Cruz can pivot back deftly, since he is capable of wording it in the right fashion where wiggle room exists and in a way that looks principled, not merely reactionary and thus easy to demonize *for free* by the left.

In short, Cruz must show that he is a better, more sincere, more electable, more nuanced candidate than Trump. A person you marry, not the bad boy you just date to get back at your mother!

He must show he’s a viable alternative that cannot be bought who has consistently stood against the Establishment even when it hurt him. He must show he’s on the side of regular Americans. He must show that he has all the key advantages of a Trump candidacy without the negative offsetting baggage. He needs to show that he WILL stand up just as effectively, but in more strategic tones, to mindless P.C. since that is one of the main issues for the candidacy of his rival.

5.) Show the public on national television that Donald is ignorant outright of too many basic facts on foreign policy and other issues by preparing trap questions with specifics that force Trump to answer in detail, since he cannot. See the nuclear triad affair. A poster on Redstate already suggested this a strategy. It may be an option to shock people into awakening at last.

He must be careful in tonight’s debate not to interrupt absurdly, as possibly Christie is expected to do, to press Donald. But he has to show people he’s an Alpha Male, too, not just a smart nerd that will fold whenever somebody calls him a bigot. At heart, many Trump supporters want to like Cruz, they just want to know he has the necessary testicles to stand up to anyone, too.

I realize many will read this and argue going negative on Trump will sour his supporters from eventually backing Cruz later on, but at this point it’s at least partially moot since the Establishment and Trump are going to try to stop Cruz before Iowa at any price going forward, so the gloves are off.

The strategy of being indirect will no longer work.

If he does not counter now, he will lose anyway…