Early vote count--Things look good for Ken Buck in CO

I got a little nervous after reading a couple of recent polls (one by a Democratic firm PPP) that showed a dead heat in CO-Sen– but I felt a lot better after looking at the just released actual vote totals.

About 27% of the 2006 vote total has already been counted in 2010 (more than 440,000 votes.) Of those votes 41.7% were Republicans and 36.0% were Democrats.  As the most recent 200,000 absentees have come in, the Republican share has dropped only from 42.1% to 41.7% while the Democratic share has dropped from 37.0% to 36.0%.  This indicates that Republican share of the two-party vote is increasing as the vote count continues.  This is also a considerably better split than that assumed by PPP, which assumes a 38% to 35% Republican turnout lead.  With approximately 1/4 of the votes already in, Bennett needs a much better Democratic turnout with remaining voters to hit those 38-35 numbers.

Even better news from Survey USA, which also showed a 47%-47% tie in their results.  According to the Survey USA results 51% of Bennett voters had already voted vs. only 45% of Buck voters.  Yet the current turnout numbers suggest a 5.6% Republican turnout advantage, which strongly indicates that Survey USA has oversampled Bennett voters.  If Republicans are turning out 6% more than Demorcats in the real election, but polls are showing that more Bennett voters have already voted than Buck voters, I really like our chances here.