Diary

The Demographics Hold: Conservatives on the Rise

Last year, I covered that there is a “Demographic of Doom” for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.  Basically, the people politically identified as ‘Conservatives” vastly outnumbered those identified as “liberal,” and equaled those identified as “moderate or independent.” This is what I had to say back then.

Recent polls have shown that America is beginning to move to the right, with 40% claiming to be Conservative, 21% liberal, and 38% “moderate.”

With nearly a 2-1 margin, Conservatives might see this as a cause for celebration. This has happened before- people do turn more conservative when there are difficult economic times.  It might also be because the POTUS has been caught in many of his lies, and his polices are being exposed, stalled, and (hopefully) defeated.

The research I noted indicates that neither ideology has a sufficient voting bloc to win an election outright, the liberals even more so.  Obviously, this explains why the POTUS appeared more moderate in his rhetoric during the campaign, and why he distanced himself from his associations with ACORN, Jeremiah Wright, and Bill Ayers.  They knew what to say, and when to say it, to put the moderates at ease.  Also consider that the MSM selectively covers the left in a way that ignores their failure and promotes or invents the successes, and consequently,  there was a mass deception.  Combine all of that with the fact that the left and the MSM browbeat Bush for eight years (And Bush did an abysmal job in explaining his positions), inducing ‘Bush fatigue.”  In the end, as the saying goes, the “center did not hold.”

The implications of this are clear.  The Democrats cannot win elections without taking the middle.  They were able to do that in 2006, and 2008.  However, 2010 looks to be pretty bad for the Democrats.  Additionally, as I noted last July, the POTUS tried to appear moderate to set the middle at ease when he ran for office.  After the last 15 months of actually governing (or not), the people have gotten a taste of Obama’s policies, and it has proven to be a most sour flavor.  Needless to say, he’ll not be able to replicate that strategy.

Gallup has duplicated their polling. And the results seem a bit worse for the Democrats.

PRINCETON, NJ — Conservatives have maintained their leading position among U.S. ideological groups in the first half of 2010. Gallup finds 42% of Americans describing themselves as either very conservative or conservative. This is up slightly from the 40% seen for all of 2009 and contrasts with the 20% calling themselves liberal or very liberal.

The 2010 results are based on eight Gallup and USA Today/Gallup surveys conducted from January through June, encompassing interviews with more than 8,000 U.S. adults. The 42% identifying as conservative represents a continuation of the slight but statistically significant edge conservatives achieved over moderates in 2009. Should that figure hold for all of 2010, it would represent the highest annual percentage identifying as conservative in Gallup’s history of measuring ideology with this wording, dating to 1992.

Here’s a telling trend.

Independents today are slightly more likely to say they are moderate than conservative, with fewer than 20% identifying as liberal. While this is similar to 2009, it represents an increase in conservatism among this group since 2008. (emphasis mine)

So, this is a potentially disastrous trend for Democrats, and especially the “progressive” wing.  They need moderates and independents to vote for them.  Otherwise, they are a fringe party.  However, the independents and moderates have been increasingly alienated by the Democrat’s schemes, and are moving to the right.    Essentially, both poles need the middle to win, but the left needs far more of that segment than the right to pull off electoral victories.  Also, we must consider that not all members of any segment will vote, but at this point in time, enthusiasm goes to the Conservatives, so the GOP should expect greater turnout and gains in November.

I looked forward for this polling data, as Gallup does it yearly.   I was interested in seeing if the trends had changed.  However, it has some particular importance, given the recent immigration debate.  Over the last week or so, I’ve been stressing to other bloggers that ” Comprehensive Immigration Reform” (read: amnesty) is solely targeted at leveling the ideological/demographic  imbalance.  If the “progressives” can grant amnesty to millions of illegals, and make them dependent on government programming, they can do much to “correct” this imbalance.  It’s not that they care for the illegals any more than any of their other client groups.  They keep them down just enough to keep them on the government plantation (as well as letting them think that they are doing them a favor).  That way, they know they’ll have their votes every election day.

Cross-posted at the Conservative Hideout.