Diary

If the Polling Holds Up, Here's What the Delegate Count will Look Like on March 2...

I despise polls. I really, really do.

They have the corrosive effect of making the monumental decision of selecting a president into some weird agglomeration of a Gameshow-slash-Fantasy Polical Party league. I hate polls, and I loathe people that hang onto their every gyration…

Who is up, who is down. And none of it matters. Check the polls from October– Ben Carson led or barely trailed Donny-Boy in just about every one of them; and what did the Good Doctor garner last night in New Hampshire? Two percent of the vote — a mere ninety days later? Polls, Schmolls.

But, if you apply the byzantine rules of the Republican delegate selection process (where each state has “X” number of “Convention Delegate” and “Apportioned Delegates” and “RNC Delegates”, and factor in which states are “winner take all” states –of which none are before the First of March, and so forth) to the latest available polling information, and then layer on the already-awarded delegate count from the first two actual contests, and project it all to March 2nd (-that day after the Big “SEC” primary), this is what the Delegate Count will look like:

Trump: 86

Cruz: 66

Rubio: 53

Carson: 29

Bush: 7

Kaisich : 5

Conclusion? Rubio and Carson must drop out –NOW. And, as the warden said in the Shawshank Redemption: “Not in couple hours, not after breakfast, NOW”.

Yes, yes, I know: There is a dearth of available recent polling for many of these states– but, you can only use what you can use. For example, the bulk of the information on Alabama comes from a poll taken —guess when— in early October, when Ben Carson lead the pack. This poll accounts for 7 of his delegates in the above count.

It’s all about the delegates. The lions share of both Rubio’s and Carson’s delegates would likely go to Cruz; say, 75%. Apply that number (pulled out of my ear, but, ear-pulling made Scott Rassmussen a millionaire) and the delegate count would be Cruz: 128, Trump 107, Bush 7, Kaisich 5

Like I say, I despise polling. But, it is what it is…