In the 1980 presidential primary Georage H.W. Bush lost to Ronald Reagan in his home state of TX.  Bush had also lost his home state in a Senate Race previousily.  History has shown that someone can lose a race for the senate in their home state and lose a primary in their own state and come back to be the future nominee.  Based on that history, I don’t think it is automatically fair to say that if he loses it will destory him for 2016.

Santorum is, roughly, in a similar possition to what Huckabee was in 4 years ago.  McCain was clearly winning in 2008, and Huckabee was the long-shot candidate who had the best chance to defeat him.  McCain was the more moderate candidate and Huckabee went against him to the right.  Romney ran in that race but was  certainily not in the same possition as Gingrich or Paul of this year, but also not the same as Santorum of this year.  When Romney ran 4 years ago he was all money and no base support.  Anyway, in that situation Huckabee decided to run until McCain got the electorial votes needed to win.  He ran, lost, but got a TV show and now also a radio show.  Huckabee now has more influence that he would have if he dropped out early.  Running gave him a chance to campaign around the country.  The same advantage was true for Reagan in 1976 and for George H.W. Bush in 1980.

There is no certainty that Santorum would be any better possitioned for 2016 if he dropped out.  In fact, the opposit is true.  Santorum is unlikely to be able to raise as much money, get as much free press, or have as much of a chance to take his message across the country at any other point than now.  Win or lose, he has every advantage to go on.

There are questions about being VP.  Gingrich is probably out-of-the-question at this point.  Santorum’s best chance for VP is to keep running, though it would remain a long-shot for him, Santorum does appeal to a slice of voters that Romney does not.  I do not think Santorum is the best VP choice, but he doesn’t help himself on that by dropping out.

As to Santorum’s chances of winning: anything is always possible.  At this point there is still a slim chance for Santorum to pull through.  Romney’s support is based on the idea Romney can win, single major scandel or major mistake could change the game.  Unlikely, but possible.