once more with feeling: where do we go from here?


UPDATE 2: Will Senator Cruz filibuster the Senate deal? 


UPDATE: Erick says that the House should reject the Senate bill, but I no longer agree with him. Entitlements are more important. I cant believe I’ve become a fiscon 😛

why do I get the feeling that when this is all done and over with, we are gonna be like the Scoobies:


we fight, and we sort of win, but we have to face the Big Bad all over again in 6 weeks.

Get the feeling we are just going through the motions?

politico reports that any delay or defund of Obamacare is off the table by R leaders.

So what are we really going to get?

Here is my prediction how it all shakes out –

Tuesday: McConnell strikes a deal with Reid. debt ceiling raised until next year, right before midterms. CR to fund government for 6 weeks. Medical device tax replaced with something else. Income verification on receiving Obamacare subsidies.

Wednesday: Boehner puts the Senate deal on the floor. All Dems and all Republicans *except* the conservative caucus sign on.

Thursday: headlines proclaim “bipartisan deal”

next 6 weeks: Dems and GOP do a grand bargain:

– chaining CPI

– delay of Obamacare mandate (how convenient since the exchanges aren’t ready anyway!!)

– fund government at level exactly in between sequester level and Dems’ level (note: cutting spending below sequester level? fuggedaboutit)

Boehner hailed as the next Lyndon Johnson. Big Business counters any primary challenge with money to Tea-targeted Republicans. We go into next year with pretty much status quo: more spending than this year, Obamacare intact but mandate delayed, everyone sits pretty and says they fixed entitlements.

2014 elections: gerrymandered districts mean Tea Party conservatives are safe from any anger at shutdown. RINOs in the house get targeted and are either replaced by true conservatives from Tea Party, or get picked off by Dems (really depends on how the local media does in blaming shutdown vs how well the rep is known to the folks in district). We keep the House, but still don’t take the Senate. Overall balance of power is the same, but there’s no pretension of the Hastert Rule anymore (Hastert himself – another RINO – just said that the Haster Rule doesn’t exist!!)

2015-2016: Amnesty.