About a month ago I published, “2020 Democrat Nightmare Primary Prediction and SPAM Candidates“, wherein I predicted that Biden would become the Democratic nominee to face Trump in 2020.
The nightmare I described for the Democrats and especially for those that I termed the SWORDs (Socialist Wing Of Radical Democrats) is that the nomination between what I called the SPAM (Stale, Pale, Aging, Male) candidates Biden and Bernie wouldn’t be decided until their actual convention. The 2016 contest nearly came down to this and of course was rigged by and for Hillary. I suspect the same will take place for Biden even with their super-delegate rules changes that Bernie pushed for and got a compromise that year.
It’s very early to make a prediction and there are many wildcards that will effect the outcome and perhaps my Biden win prediction.
The foremost glaring one of course was if Biden would actually run. That’s a given now and on a side note, I’ve never seen a more glum and gloomy rollout of a campaign via that video he posted. Why start a campaign on negativity and near plagiarism of MAGA with his slogan: “our best days still lie ahead”.
Yet he seems to be late to the game which could hurt him as others in the field are gaining traction. Then again, after all the #MeToo women reports of his creepy groping, perhaps laying low while those reports fizzled from the press was probably a smart move. He’s learned from the top dogs in Virginia…in time, all bad press will pass.
The really big wildcard is whom the press decides to promote. They think they are the kingmaker but it’s not always so…just ask HRC. And as much as they despised and ridiculed Trump, they actually did him a favor by airing his speeches, putting him on their shows and talking about him 24 hours a day. Their purpose was to derail him as a lunatic but it backfired fabulously!
In the same vein, they also showed plenty of Bernie’s speeches which further elevated his status and was counter-productive to their, “HRC owns the golden ticket” narrative. Just as they recently downplayed Biden’s creepiness. They know not what they do can backfire spectacularly!
Today’s flavor of the month is Mayor Pete. Last month it was Beto-mania. They did not like Howard Schultz at all and he’s off the radar for now. Bernie stole the show at his FoxNew townhall and we’ll soon see Mayor Pete there too given the ratings bonanza. Someone should tell DNC chair Perez he made a big mistake for not allowing Fox to host any Dem debates. I predict a change of course in due time.
The next wildcard is the Dem primary debates which start in just two months! The rules for have changed for the 12 scheduled debates and many of the candidates may not qualify based upon the new rules:
The DNC also announced the qualification criteria for candidates’ participation in the first two debates – a two-path system that employs both a polling threshold and a grassroots fundraising threshold, and uses the two measures in combination in the event that more than 20 candidates qualify.
DETAILS ON THRESHOLD FOR PARTICIPATION:
Democratic candidates may qualify for the first and second debate by meeting one of the two following sets of criteria:
Polling Method: Register 1% or more support in three polls (which may be national polls, or polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada) publicly released between January 1, 2019, and 14 days prior to the date of the Organization Debate. Qualifying polls will be limited to those sponsored by one or more of the following organizations/institutions:Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Des Moines Register, Fox News, Las Vegas Review Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, New York Times, National Public Radio (NPR), Quinnipiac University, Reuters, University of New Hampshire, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Washington Post, Winthrop University. Any candidate’s three qualifying polls must be conducted by different organizations, or if by the same organization, must be in different geographical areas.
Grassroots Fundraising Method. Candidates may qualify for the debate by demonstrating that the campaign has received donations from at least (1) 65,000 unique donors; and (2) a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states. To demonstrate that the fundraising threshold has been reached, candidates must provide verifiable evidence, which they may do by authorizing ActBlue and/or NGP VAN to provide that evidence.
If more than 20 candidates qualify for the debate, the top 20 candidates will be selected using a methodology that gives primacy to candidates meeting both thresholds, followed by the highest polling average, followed by the most unique donors.
Biden, Bernie, Yang, Pete, O’Rourke and Tulsi are in as well as most of the others since 1% polling is a pretty low threshold. However, many like Gillibrand, Booker and Warren are desperate and bowling for dollars to get to the unique donor requirement.
Then we have the polls; the remarkably inaccurate polls meant to sway opinions. Biden is clearly leading in the national polls but it’s much closer in state polls. They don’t mean anything now except as it relates to the new DNC rules for the debates.
The bottom line is the Democrat party despises Bernie because he’s never been one of them but only changes his dash to run for president; he uses their apparatus for selfish reasons and they don’t like that one bit.
As I said in the referenced diary, they have the long knives out for him and they will do everything to stop him from getting the nomination. His brand is akin to the #NeverTrumpers stopping Trump- he’s poison to their party in their eyes.
I can see this Democrat circus going to a contested convention between Biden and Bernie. And thanks to Bernie, the super-delegates don’t come into play at the convention until the second round. Yet that doesn’t mean the Dem power leaders won’t favor Biden over Bernie if they have to pull the emergency card.
After the field has winnowed, we could witness a proxy war between the preferred candidates of Obama and Clinton. My crystal ball isn’t clear on their choices yet I think Obama will throw in for Biden eventually and HRC will choose a woman underdog just to prove she’s still relevant and not the Blair witch wandering in the woods. Let’s face it, she should throw in for Bernie for rigging the last election against him but that won’t ever happen.
There is no doubt that Biden will be a horrible candidate as usual and full of gaffes, yet I think the Dem establishment (which also means the MSM) will cover for him no matter what. They all think he’s the only one that can beat Trump. But the Bernie-or-bust crowd will sufficiently trash Biden along the way that he’ll limp to the finish line only to be beaten roundly by Trump.
I’m sure I’ve missed several other wildcards to please add to the list in the comments below!