Flatten the curve.
Do you remember when Iran had a big outbreak of COVID? Do you remember when Italy did? Do you remember when New York City and surrounding areas were the epicenter of COVID in the US? There are a lot of different informational sites about COVID, one that I like is Johns Hopkins. Pulling in a half Billion dollars from NIH they can afford a pretty good site. They break stuff down by nation, state, and county.
I like looking at New Jersey sometimes. New Jersey is basically suburbs of New York City, suburbs of Philadelphia, and semi-rural areas. Back when NYC was the epicenter you could see a beautiful correlation between the New York outbreak and New Jersey. It is similar now, but not identical. Anyway, I am rambling…
Back in April when we were all going to die from COVID the daily cases in New Jersey were in the 3,000-4,000 range with generally 300-400 deaths per day. Now during the “second wave” the cases are even higher at +4,000 per day. Want to guess where the daily deaths are? They are bouncing a bit, but the most recent maximum was 27 on Nov. 13th. That’s right, the deaths have gone from 1 for each 10 infections to 1 for each 160 infections, 16 times less fatal.
Note – these are confirmed cases. Many cases are never confirmed.
Another great state to look at is Wisconsin. They have had a lot of cases for such a small state. In fact, 10% of their population has been diagnosed with COVID. If the papers are right and 50% of the population has crossover immunity and the threshold for herd immunity is ~70% then we should see Wisconsin hit that point very very soon. North and South Dakota are also pushing 10% of their population testing positive (and several states are above 5%) so should see a natural downward curve.
COVID is over. We may not have an FDA approved vaccination (almost there), but we apparently have the cure for it (in over 99% of the cases).
Here’s the part that is somewhat nauseating…
The epidemiologists and politicians are likely aware of this as well. Biden’s team is going to institute (or try to institute) a national lockdown and then claim credit for the end of COVID. The media will absolutely let him get away with it. Yet the reality is the virus has already done its primary damage. It has ravaged the nursing homes and now the people most likely to catch the disease are the least likely to be affected by it (just ask New Jersey). In New Jersey the lockdowns are completely pointless because there is nothing anyone can do to save lives. The lives that would be lost due to COVID have been lost already. Even if New Jersey locked down until everyone had a vaccination it wouldn’t make a difference.
This is rapidly becoming the case in more and more states. We need to move on.