Diary

Trump is doomed: All is not lost

Donald is likely to lose, and lose big.  The Electoral college maps have Hillary up around 370, but it may be even bigger than that.  Lets consider the possibility that Mormons in Utah abstain or vote for Johnson, and consider the same might happen with Cruz supporters in Texas – Hillary very well may come in over 400 Electoral votes.  We may lose 5 Senate seats, and it might even be the case that the House flips.  However…

Hillary is not Obama.  She is not an ideologue, she is mostly pragmatic following whatever she thinks is most popular among her supporters at any given moment.  She has no interest in steering the ship, only in standing at the helm.  If a fight is going to be difficult she will absolutely punt.  Obama sacrificed the House and Senate majorities in 2010 in order to push through Obamacare, Hillary has no such compunction.

2018 There will be another election in 2014 in which Democratic Senate seats in North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, and swing states of Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Indiana are up.  If Hillary is a disaster and remains as popular as she is now 2018 could net up to 8 seats.  Similarly the House would flip back.

2020 If Hillary remains as popular as she is now we will have a 1980 election.  The map changes completely as the country rejects 12 years of Democrat rule.  While the Senate map is less favorable if Hillary is repudiated it should be possible to defend the map that year (followed with replacing our 2016 losses in the 2022 midterm).  The most likely nominee (at least at this point) is Cruz for the simple fact that he will be able to lay at the feet of every one of his opponents their endorsement of Trump.  So in 2020 we will likely see a strong Senate Majority, a strong House Majority, and a Cruz presidency along with a “mandate.”

Republican Leadership  The grassroots was clearly pissed at the Establishment this year.  The Establishment chose to ride the Trump train to protect their shiny hineys.  However, the resentment remains, and Trump has turned on them as he has everyone else.  The Trump fans will be mad at the Establishment for Trump loosing, and the Conservatives will be angry over the Trump nomination.  Establishment will have to accept conservatives and we will see more SCF and less NRSC.  More McDaniels less Cochran.  With more McDaniels in the Senate McConnell will have a difficult time holding his role.

In Closing Two years is a short time.  Hillary has no ambition of changing the country and she will not have 60 Senators.  There will be no Hillarycare.  Everything lost can be found, and in the meantime we will have a unique opportunity to maintain Conservative seats while Moderates are lost and replace the leadership.  The next Presidential election will feature the least liked sitting president since Johnson who was elected for the sole reason that she could be trusted not to launch nukes unprovoked.  She will still be a liar, a crook, and will add to her list of scandals.  The Republican candidates are 1)Cruz 2)People that endorsed Trump.  Cruz will maintain his donor and activist network and build his warchest over the next 3 years so that he will start with probably $20M in assets (imagine the number of people from Ohio who will donate to his Senate re-election campaign – the leftovers will be left in the Senate campaign and “loaned” to his Presidential campaign).

Let us lift a glass and toast Trump’s campaign (which is itself toast).