Diary

I am in denial

So, I have been thinking about Trump, and I personally just don’t believe it.  Apparently Trump is ahead of Cruz in the polls out of Iowa right now.  In 2012 Santorum won 25% of the caucus with 29k votes.  When you look through articles Trump mentions hundreds and hundreds of volunteers whereas Cruz is reported to have 9,000 in Iowa alone.  On top of that Trump’s ground game is so good that he won’t even let reporters in to see it.  So, Cruz’ volunteers are ~10% of the expected total expected to show up to caucus, and Trump won’t let reporters see if he even has volunteers.  At Trump rallies apparently the organizers can get 20-30% of the people to raise their hands to say they will vote for Trump.

Think about that, his “huge” rallies, most of the people there won’t vote for him.  Yet he leads the polls and the news.

Something is screwy.

Right now I kind of expect Iowa to look around January 31st and collectively decide: “Yeah, not Trump.”  I also expect the vote in New Hampshire to coalesce around “Trump?  You have got to be kidding me.”

I admit it, I am in denial.

Also, at this point in 2008 the RCP ranking was: Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, McCain.