An appeal to the Establishment

This diary assumes that moderate/establishment Republicans genuinely have conservative principles and want to see certain things like:

  • Fewer abortions
  • Freedom to abstain from participating in homosexual ceremonies
  • Freedom to choose what if any health insurance to offer employees
  • Border enforcement
  • Due process
  • Strict constructionist judges
  • The rest of the Republican Platform

I assume that you want to win fights.  I also assume that the biggest fear is a repeat of 2008 when all levers of the Federal Government were turned over to Democrats and nightmarish policies became entrenched law.  I also assume that you look at Medicare and Social Security and believe that losing fights is worse than not fighting them at all, since the halt of almost any law signifies a Conservative win.  This would be why you instinctively prefer candidates like Romney, although he may not accomplish much he would at least slow the progressive grind.  This does not impugn motives at all, it simply says you have a different strategy for winning.  Slow everything down until you have absolute control, then act quickly and decisively.

However – allow me to paint a different picture of 2016.  This year the Senate is obviously up for grabs.  From the “moderate” view then you would prefer a candidate like Rubio, Bush, or Kasich.  Clearly Rubio (who is a staunch conservative) is most preferred from this group.  He would aid to victories in the Senate, possibly allowing a 56 seat majority.  Cruz would lose like Goldwater.  However, in all fairness those are not your options.  Rubio is currently faltering due to negative ads (the only type Hillary will run by the way), and has dropped below Bush in some states, and below Kasich in New Hampshire.  Kasich is out Super Tuesday, plain and simple.  There is no possible way he holds his own on a 3 man stage with Trump and Rubio.  Ditto for Bush.  And Rubio is headed out (see above).  You really have only two options: Trump and Cruz.

Going back to not maligning motives – I genuinely want to believe that the “establishment” favors conservative wins, otherwise you would be passing active budgets in coordination with the WH rather than just CRs.  If Trump is the nominee there are two options

  1. He loses and Clinton or Sanders becomes president
  2. He wins and damages every conservative issue he touches making wins that much harder

There really is no other option.  The best he would do in office would cause the “establishment” to delay a president of their own party.  Alternatively with Cruz there are again two options

  1. He loses and Clinton or Sanders becomes president
  2. He wins and fights for every conservative issue that currently exists

I understand the aversion to losing fights and the realization that delay=win.  However, there is no upside to a Trump win, but there is for a Cruz win.  This really is a once in a generation opportunity to see a combined Republican WH, Congress, Senate, replace several Supreme Court justices, and expand the Senate in 2018.  Clearly given Trump’s 0 endorsements there are no establishment Republicans that want him President.  From your point of view though Cruz really ought to look like George W. Bush circa 2000, only better.