Diary

Trump has hit his Iowa ceiling

So, Cruz was an American citizen at birth, and never tried to act upon is Canadian citizenship.  He renounced it as soon as anyone brought it up.  However, Trump is out there saying it might be a problem for some voters.  Cruz’ numbers are falling with this particular attack.  First off, interesting that the first thing that affects his numbers are the situation of his birth, a fact he had no say in.  Second, as Cruz has fallen a few points there has been a corresponding jump in the poll averages of Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, and Rand Paul.  Yep, Cruz backers are more likely to switch to Christie than to Donald Trump.

I think that the main thing this demonstrates is that Trump is truly limited to a 28 point ceiling in Iowa.  Cruz must do two things in order to win

  1. Close the controversy
  2. Demonstrate strength against Trump

Cruz also has the self-imposed boundary of not directly criticizing the character of his opponents.  However even within that boundary Cruz has several options.  My two favorites are:

  1. Look, opponents attack that’s what they do, especially when they start to fall behind in the polls.  I would rather look at what each of our presidencies would look like rather than focus on how a couple of the other candidates switch their opinions on everything over the course of three months.
  2. Well, we can of course address whether when an American woman is in Canada her children are protected by the American constitution – the answer is yes.  However, when considering a nominee I think where the nominee’s mother happened to be during her 9th month is less important than whether the nominee supports that a woman at 9 months can go ahead and abort that baby, or whether the nominee believes government should confiscate property in order to build a waiting area for limos, or whether the nominee believes Obamacare is great but we need something even more liberal.  I think those are far more important questions.

although they obviously could be combined.  Given the timing I don’t think this is an issue Cruz can avoid at the next debate.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  It certainly will affect who people believe should debate the eventual Democratic nominee.  However it plays out though Trump will not get more than 28%.  Cruz’ least loyal supporters favor Christie to Trump, and that’s saying something.