Diary

To the Cruz Super PACs

There are beginning to be a few articles about why Cruz’ super PACs aren’t spending yet.  My best guess is that Cruz when setting them up (before the firewall went in place) had a gameplan laid out and the PACs are following it.  However, it may be that the PACs are doing something else.  I would beg the PACs not to make movements in response to reporters pining over stuff to report.  They really just want ratings, they don’t care if Cruz wins.  On those lines:

The Next Debate

The next debate will require the candidates to be averaging 2.5% in the four most recent national polls taken up through Wednesday.  Frankly, some of the candidates are doing pretty poorly.  There will be a group of polls before the end of the week likely showing the next debate stage will host 6 instead of 10 candidates.  Cruz has already made a grand showing at the last debate, I expect he will do so again next week.  Allow Cruz to make his name before you build it.  If he has another performance like the last one he will end up second to Carson in Iowa pushing Trump to third.  Please do not steal his thunder and make the news cycle about what you are spending instead of how he is performing.

Trump begins fade into obscurity

If you look closely at the news headlines over the last week you will find something interesting: people have stopped caring about Trump.  News articles barely mention him, he isn’t making front page at Redstate, he is fading in the most egregious way, his ratings are down.  He really can’t induce more outrage, he can’t become likable, he can’t generate interesting policy, he can’t raise his poll numbers.  His campaign thrives on “Look at me” but nobody is looking.  The one and only thing he can do is enter a spending war.  Trump is fading in Iowa, fading in New Hampshire, and fading nationally.  Allow that to happen without appealing to Trump’s one and only strength.

Timing is everything

Rubio wants to peak in late January.  If you push for a surge right now that will allow time for a surge to start, peak, and then fade before January 15th.  Please push for a Cruz surge no earlier than one month from now.  If you push to improve polling near the beginning of December then the result will show in the polls 1-2 weeks later.  The surge would start in mid December and start to crescendo near mid January setting Cruz up for a win in Iowa knocking out Carson (and Jindal, Huckabee, and Santorum if they are still in).  Rubio will be planning the same thing and a win for Rubio in New Hampshire will end Bush, Trump, Kasich, and Fiorina.  A build up now sets Cruz to potentially hit Carson and Trump, but sets up Rubio to be “the next thing” in mid January.

Final Plea

The press wants to get ratings.  They want news.  They do not want you to win, you saw that on full display last week in Boulder.  Please please please stick to a good plan that wins Iowa and South Carolina and let Politico jump off a cliff, they are just trolling.