Diary

Trump starts wheezing in Iowa

Let me begin by admitting something:  I like [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ].  I want [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] to win and Donald Trump to lose.  If not Ted then Bobby Jindal.  There are certain men who would be good for the nation and others who would be bad.  I have no reason to believe that Trump will actually do what he says he will (given that nobody even knows what he says he will do).  I think Trump will make sure that Wall St is well cared for with a doubling down for TARP, and expansion of government services across the board.  I believe he will appoint terrible judges to lifetime positions and will continue the “good” part of Planned Parenthood (the 97% of it that he likes).  With that disclaimer out of the way:

Real Clear Politics does not include all polls.  I don’t know how they choose their polls, but they ignore some.  Right now there is a new poll from Bloomberg showing Carson as +8 in Iowa.  Let’s for a moment combine polls from RCP and those shown on HuffingtonPost Polltracker (yes, Huffingtonpost is partisan hackery, but their poll tracker is good) and make two filters:

  1. Reject internet polls
  2. Only include polls taken since Walker dropped out

We get the following results:

  • 9/25-9/27 Gravis: Trump+5
  • 9/23-9/30 NBC: Trump +5
  • 10/3-10/4 Basswood: Carson +5
  • 10/14-10/20 Quinnipiac: Carson +8

Trump is no longer leading in Iowa.  Granted, Carson’s margin is small (<1%) but at this point the best Trump can say about Iowa is that he is tied if you include polls taken a month ago.  While he is clearly still leading nationally, the Iowas polls are beginning a shift from ratings to support.  Trump is fantastic at running up ratings.  True support?

Other takeaways:

Paul, Bush, and Fiorina are in a tie for the lower tier at 5-6% each while Jindal’s support has dropped to 3%.  Given Paul’s fundraising rate and cash on hand from last quarter he should be broke in about a month, and same for Jindal.  Fiorina continues a slide back to <5% in Iowa as well as nationally moving her to lower tier.  Unless Bush can do something major to revive his candidacy Iowa has effectively narrowed to Carson, Trump, Rubio, and Cruz.  Also, in the last few polls in New Hampshire Trump’s margins have been (in time order) +19, +16, +12, +7.  These are declines of -3, -4, -5 respectively.  Anyone care to guess what the next margin might be?

One of my favorite lines from the Lord of the Rings movies is when Gimli is bent over wheezing after a bit of a jog and says: “Dwarves are natural sprinters.  Very dangerous over short distances.”  I think Walker, Perry, Jindal, Paul, and Jeb might agree.