Diary

To Newt, or Not to Newt, that is the Question

Post Perry day one has been kind of unnerving for me. This year could have been a great year; in fact it still could have some very wonderful highlights: God could continue to bless me with so much when I’ve done so little, my family are all alive and pretty healthy, and the San Francisco 49ers could go to the Super Bowl, and beat the Baltimore Ravens who has the coach who is the brother of the 49ers’ coach; wouldn’t that be something; well it would if you were a 49er fan.

What will not happen is the country’s most successful governor will not become the country’s newest president elect.  This leaves so very few options to choose from.

One could decide that they are going to support President Obama, but that would just be plain stupid, and no conservative would be so thoroughly asinine; would they. I’ve heard a few bitter bunnies say that very thing since yesterday and nothing could be, well more draconian; beating Obama is the only way to help this country, so please do not punish the rest of the country because Rick Perry’s campaign failed to rally the conservative base towards his cause; even if you feel they should have like I do.  The empirical evidence is there, Obama’s second term would be at minimal a complete disaster; not that most breathing conservatives do not already understand this.

Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum are the only viable choices left in this race, and Ron Paul only squeezes into the last spot. I am not so sure his foreign policy would not make Obama’s more desirable.

Whom of the remaining candidates is the most likely to take our country back?

Well let’s remember, none of the candidates can take the country back unless they win.

Mitt Romney, like the picture above indicates there are some major issues with the candidacy of Willard Romney, better known as Mittens. He has a long history of flip flopping on just about everything that matters, but for some reason this does not seem to keep him from running head to head against Obama in just about every poll; and it is possible his wavering has kept his moderate persona intact, because lord knows he does not talk like a moderate much of the time; last night he suddenly became a states right activist, which is good if only he really meant it.  

I am not one who puts too much into polls that gage an election still 11 months away, but it is a measure that should be looked at, it does help gage where the electorate is now. Mitt Romney would be a better president than Obama in many ways, and there is a possibility that a Republican controlled Congress could swing him farther to the right, but there is equally a chance that a Democratic controlled Congress and media could have the opposite effect; which would leave the country with a very Obama like President. If history indeed repeats itself, Mitt Romney does not give me much hope for a conservative administration.

Newt Gingrich has spent most of his public career fighting for conservative values, but he has not spent his whole career doing so. He also has spent time talking up progressive ideas, and progressive people. One does not end up doing an ad with Nancy Pelosi without having a progressive streak in them. This is not what scares me the most about Newt Gingrich though, I do not think he would be a progressive president; the problem is, I don’t think he would ever get that far. I think everyone is aware of Newt Gingrich’s baggage, but at least 20 plus percent of the Republican electorate has deemed it unimportant enough to still tell pollsters that they would support him in the Republican primary, but when it comes to head to head matchups against Obama, Newt is down 10 or more percentage points. So the argument about the polls works opposite with Newt Gingrich; can he beat Obama, and will his personal baggage make that less likely in the general election. On the other side of the coin, Newt would no doubt be the best to debate Obama; he is the king of riposte.  That alone could give him a better chance at taking Obama down a notch or two, but would that even equal the playing field.

Rick Santorum is facing the same poll situation as Newt Gingrich when it comes to head to head matchups against President Obama; he seems to average right around ten percentage points behind. There is a bigger problem for Santorum though, he is not going to win South Carolina, which makes it so he has lost two state since Winning Iowa; and this is big because if he did not see that momentum sustain him through at least S.C., then it should not be expected that he will win Florida, he does not have the time to visit every Florida county in order to help him gain that edge he had in Iowa. It’s just a matter of time before Santorum steps out and endorses Mitt Romney. One thing that did look good for him last night, he was willing to tell it how it is on the debate stage, something that only Perry and Huntsman had done this season.

Ron Paul is running much better in the polls against President Obama than Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum is, which should give the Republican Party some pause, this country is very war weary, and this could very well be the reason Ron Paul is attracting so much of the middle. The real question about his candidacy is will he keep some of the more hawkish elements of his own party from staying home, or even voting for Obama. I am not sure how large is the anti-war element in the party, but it is there, and Ron Paul leads it. Here is the issue, if Ron Paul is the nominee, we will have to face a few things, first there will be the question on age, which happened to John McCain in 2008. Paul could rectify this with a strong VP choice, and /or maybe some strong Reagan like comeback dealing with the youth and inexperience of the opposition. Second issue will be the fact that with the Nomination of Ron Paul, Obama will have the claim of having a tougher foreign policy, and he will be right. That alone should give some pause.

Now what, we have some very flawed choices here.  Being without a pony in the show is kind of liberating in the sense that I can look at things through more objective eyes, but it is bad because it takes the excitement out of this primary season. The tried and true 10th Amendment supporter is no longer in the race; and the closest thing to that is Paul, who has been talking about state rights longer than the others still in the race. For me, Paul is a nonstarter, when we have every terrorist group on the planet wishing us harm, and isolationist policy could be catastrophic; almost no improvement is worth that.

There are good reasons to support each one of these candidates over the other, but the answer is not easy. Does Mitt Romney have a better shot at beating Obama than Newt Gingrich? I think that is the question, and it needs to be answered. Do we go with the polling which would indicate that Mitt Romney can beat Obama, but Newt Gingrich will struggle? Is watching Newt give Obama a verbal beat down worth the risk that he will self-destruct have way towards November. Rick Santorum made a good point last night when he said that with a Gingrich nomination we would have to worry if at any point something will be said that blows the lid off the whole thing. What about Romney’s taxes, why is he waiting to release these; is the something in them that he feels will harm him.

The basic premise is kind of like a football game, with Romney, we are playing it safe, with a chance to lose. With Gingrich, we are throwing for the hail marry, but the outcome could be disastrous.

So after a day to really contemplate the state of the race, I’m left with the question “To Newt, or Not to Newt”

While reading Glenn Becks book “The original argument”  Alexander Hamilton that in History, “dangerous ambition often lurks more in those who have excessive enthusiasm for the rights of the people that those who believe in a firm and efficient government. History proves that the former more often leads to tyranny that the latter, and that the people who have trampled on the liberties of a republic often began their campaigns by being overly concerned with the rights of the people and helping to end tyranny” and in this is a warning to everyone, it is ambition that often causes big government action, and we all know that that those who run for president are always an ambitious bunch.