For a while now I’ve said I plan on voting for Cruz in my state’s primary (Ohio). However, I’m an open-minded person, and a thinker. As circumstances change, I’m willing to change my positions on things if need be.
I believe such is the case in the GOP primary race we find ourselves in.
It’s become clear to me that if we have a three man race all the way to the convention, Trump will win, it’s just simple math. But if we have a two person race, with either Cruz or Rubio taking on Trump, that candidate will win. A recent poll showed that in head to head matchups both Rubio and Cruz beat Trump by around 16 pts each.
But that will only happen if all of the other candidates get out of the race.
So I propose the following, knowing full well how upset or angry it will likely make my fellow Cruz supporters:
After Super Tuesday much will be clarified in this race. After that day Carson and Kasich should be gone (if they have any dignity left), and we’ll know who is in 1st, 2nd and 3rd in terms of total number of delegates.
At that time, I believe the 3rd place candidate MUST drop out of the race immediately, whether it’s Cruz or Rubio.
If they stay in, they’ll continue to split the vote between the two of them, in effect handing the nomination to Trump. So whoever comes in 3rd needs to put aside his ambitions and his ego and do what’s best for the party and the country and drop out.
If that’s Cruz, so be it. In fact if it is Cruz, I’ll vote for Rubio in my primary, because even if Cruz didn’t drop out after being in 3rd place after Super Tuesday, it would prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has no path to the nomination. If Cruz can’t even get 2nd place in the South, it proves he can’t win anywhere else either, and that would effectively end his campaign, whether he acknowledges it or not.
What happened last night in South Carolina doesn’t bode well for Cruz. By all accounts he had the best ground game in the state. He had the support of hundreds of pastors, who were also involved in his GOTV effort. Yet Trump still beat him with evangelicals by about 5 points. Rubio was about 5 points behind him too. which means despite Cruz’s best efforts, Evangelicals in SC didn’t really see him as one of their own any more than they did for Rubio or Trump. Either that, or they just didn’t care about who shared their faith as much as who they liked personally, which clearly wasn’t Cruz.
If Cruz can’t even beat Rubio for second place in a state that he’s supposed to do well in and where he has natural advantages, how he’s gonna beat either him or Trump in the rest of the southern states that are basically replicas of South Carolina?
When you add in the fact that Bush is now out of the race, so all of those donors and endorsements who’ve been sitting on the sidelines (Romney) waiting for the field to winnow down are now gonna jump on the Rubio bandwagon, it’s really hard to see how Cruz has a path to victory.
That’s why I’ve said from the start that Rubio would be the nominee, even though I prefer Cruz. The results from SC only confirm to me that my initial prediction was right.
In politics sometimes we have to see the forest from the trees. Conservatives like myself want a principled conservative as our nominee, the most conservative candidate in the race. But we can’t always get what we want, and we have to accept that reality.
We will all have to make sacrifices if we wanna defeat Trump, and make no mistake, that’s the number one priority right now.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not completely counting Cruz out just yet, I’m just explaining what I think is the most likely scenario and preparing myself for it. I suggest my fellow Cruz supporters do the same, cause we’re gonna need all of you in the effort to defeat Trump.
We might not like Rubio, especially considering how hard he’s worked to trash the reputation and character of Cruz, but we’re gonna have to put that behind us if Cruz can’t beat Rubio. Cruz is gonna have to put it behind him too.
We don’t have to embrace Rubio, but as I said, if he’s ahead of Cruz after Super Tuesday, or even within striking distance, I’m voting for him in Ohio, because at that point only he will have a chance to beat Trump since the rest of the big states are winner take all states like Ohio and Florida which are much more favorable to an establishment candidate like Rubio over a conservative’s conservative like Cruz.
If all this turns out as I predict, I’ll be very disappointed that Cruz couldn’t win the nomination. At the same time, I’ll view a Rubio victory as a victory for the conservative movement, because despite all of our issues with him, his record is a conservative one without a doubt, and he’s far more conservative than our past nominees, going all the way back to Reagan. If he wins, by the time we reach the convention I’ll just be happy that Trump didn’t win the nomination.
That would mean we still have one party in this country that cares about conservative values and principles and is willing to select a nominee who represents those things and is willing and able to fight for them. It would mean even the biggest cult of personality we’ve seen since Obama’s in 2008 can be defeated by a candidate who’s actually conservative.
That’s a victory for the conservative movement and the country as a whole, even if the rest of the country doesn’t realize it yet.
Let the Trump zombies go back to their caves or wherever they live, and hopefully another sociopath doesn’t emerge from the swamps of a liberal state to draw them back to the political arena again, cause we’re better off without them voting at all.