Diary

Is Ted Cruz the next Goldwater or the next Reagan?

The more I watch Cruz on tv and on the campaign trail, the more I wanna like him. I agree with him on pretty much every issue, more than with any other Republican candidate. But as of right now I intend on voting for Rubio in the primary instead of Cruz, and the reason is I just don’t believe Cruz can win in a general election.

Americans don’t typically elect politicians who are seen as polarizing to become president. The one recent exception is Obama, but he’s an exception because he was the first black president and his personal charisma covered up his radical progressive ideas and policies. But before that we had Bush, a moderate Republican, Clinton, a moderate Democrat, George HW Bush, a moderate Republican, and Reagan, who was conservative but still wasn’t viewed as polarizing by the American people, which is why he won two elections by such big margins.

 

Goldwater was a hardcore conservative who was also seen as polarizing, and he got destroyed in a general election.  I see Cruz as more of a Goldwater than a Reagan, which is unfortunate because I think he would be a good president and is the most conservative candidate in the race.

I know Cruz supporters will respond to this by saying Cruz is a true conservative just like Reagan, but I would point out that the difference is that Reagan wasn’t part of Washington, he was an outsider who had been out of politics for a few years by the time he ran for president.

Cruz has been involved in all the biggest partisan fights in DC and is associated with the gov’t shutdowns, even though he doesn’t deserve to be.

Also, I don’t even think he’ll be able to win the republican nomination because average republicans want the guy who’s the most electable, that’s why they voted for McCain and Romney despite major differences on policy.  I’m speaking for republican primary voters here, not myself, I didn’t vote for either of them, just to be clear.

So my request to Cruz supporters is this: convince me he can not only win the republican nomination, but also the general election against Hillary. Can you really imagine over 50% of the country coming together and saying “we want [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] to be our next president?” If you can’t, then you shouldn’t be voting for him, cause we need a conservative to be our nominee, but we need a conservative who can win. I believe that man is Rubio.

If I thought Cruz had a chance to beat Hillary, I would vote for him. But among the most likely nominees, he does the worst in head to head matchups against the Democrats, and his favorability ratings are always much lower than candidates like Rubio and Carson both among Republicans and among the general electorate. That would have to change drastically between now and next November for him to win, and I don’t see that happening. Can you, and if so, what would bring about that change in the way the average american views him?

 

Basically my argument against voting for Cruz is this:

Do we really think the same voters who voted for Obama twice are gonna turn around and vote for someone like Cruz, who is the polar opposite of Obama in every way and stands for everything Obama is against?

Americans always look for someone who will unite the country, not divide it even further. That’s why they voted for Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Bush, and yes, Obama. He ran as a uniter and the press pushed that narrative. He was perceived that way by many Americans, who didn’t know the details of his past, or the radical policies he supported in the past. He was an unknown in the Senate, he had no record to scrutinize for the most part, so he was a blank slate.

Even though Bush and Obama were also polar opposites, they both ran as uniters who would change the way Washington worked, and the american people believed they’d do that.

Cruz is just the opposite. He won’t have the backing of the media, and in fact they’ll dig up every controversial statement and position he’s said and had in his entire life and run it in loops 24/7. Cruz has had many votes in his short time in the senate, and given many more speeches and interviews that Obama did. Also, Cruz is perceived as a divider, in large part because the MSM chose to portray him that way, and in politics perception is reality. Once you develop a certain reputation in politics it’s almost impossible to change it.

There are countless examples of this. Kerry was portrayed by the Bush campaign as an unprincipled flip flopper, and that narrative stuck. Romney was portrayed by the media and the Obama campaign as an out of touch rich guy who didn’t care about poor people, and once again that narrative stuck to him.

Unfortunately I think the Clinton machine, with the help of the MSM, will paint Cruz as a partisan divider who will continue the gridlock and fighting in Washington, and I think voters who haven’t made up their minds are likely to believe it, just as the exit polls showed they did regarding Romney and the question of “who cares about people like me?”

As with every lie campaign, there’s a little bit of truth underneath it all, just enough to keep the narrative going. In Cruz’s case, there’s a legitimate question he’ll need to answer, which is this: You say you wanna change DC, but how would you get anything done if both Republicans and Democrats hate you? How would you work with Congress to get bills passed when you admit that most politicians in both parties of Congress can’t stand you?

Cruz has always said both parties in DC are like a cartel who only care about saying in power, but if he’s elected president, he’s gonna have to find a way to work with that cartel, otherwise he’ll have the same problem Obama has. The difference is Cruz believes in the Constitution and limiting the power of the executive branch, so he wouldn’t do things by executive order the way Obama has done.

 

But that would also mean he’d be more dependent on Congress to help him pass laws he wants passed, and if they hate him before he even gets into office, how could he possibly change that and repair those relationships?  So far I haven’t heard any Cruz supporters or Cruz himself answer these questions, and I think Hillary and the MSM would take advantage of that and convince Americans he’s just the Republican version of Obama, a partisan who will keep the country divided rather than bring people together to find solutions that make the country a better place.