Who Will Control The Senate? A Look at the 7 Most Hotly Contested Races

Updated – 11/2/2012

According to Rasmussen tracking, conducted through telephone surveys, seven of the 33 Senate races are hotly contested and too close to call at this time.

Toss Up Races


Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy now holds his biggest lead yet over Republican Linda McMahon–Murphy with 48% of the vote to McMahon’s 47%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.


Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is ahead by three-points in Florida’s U.S. Senate race. Nelson has earned 49% support with 46% going to his Republican challenger, Congressman Connie Mack.  Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.


Democratic incumbent Jon Tester and his Republican challenger, Congressman Denny Rehberg, are now tied in Montana’s U.S. Senate race. Tester and Rehberg have each garnered 48% support. Three percent (3%) like another candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.


Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has clinched 50% support for the first time in his bid for reelection in Ohio. Brown has 50% support to Republican challenger Josh Mandel’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefer another candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) are undecided.


The U.S. Senate race is tied in Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. has 46% of the state’s support, while Republican Tom Smith has 45%. Nine percent (9%) are still undecided.


Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen are still neck-and-neck in Virginia’s U.S. Senate race. Kaine has gained 49% support to Allen’s 48%. Three percent (3%) are still undecided.


Former Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin are tied in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race. Thompson holds 48% support to Baldwin’s 47%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.


Much is at stake in the battle for Senate control.  The GOP has 37 seats not up for grabs while the Democrats have 30.  Republicans are expected to win 10 of the 33 seats up for grabs while Democrats are expected to pick up 16.  In order for the GOP to gain control of the senate, they must win at least 4 of the 7 toss up races, in addition to all the races they are projected to win.