Survey USA came out with a poll yesterday showing the Presidential race within the margin of error in….MINNESOTA!!!!!!
Obama: 49%McCain: 46%MOE: 3.9%
SERIOUSLY??? Granted, Minnesota is a lot less liberal than many people think (I consider it my adopted state as I went to college there and plan to move back once I finish law school). And granted, the GOP convention was in St. Paul. And granted, Tim Pawlenty is a successful and relatively popular conservative Republican governor. And granted, Al Franken’s idiocy may be casting Democrats in a poor light in general.
Nonetheless, I would not even consider taking this poll seriously were it not for the fact that they also polled on the Senate race. The numbers there are:
Coleman: 44%Franken: 39%Barkley: 16%
That is very close to the spread other recent polls have shown. If Survey USA was oversampling Republicans one would think Coleman would have a bigger lead than in other recent polls.
In the end, I have little doubt that Obama will win Minnesota. But I think the results of this poll indicate one of two things:
A. The presidential contest is in much more flux than the MSM will ever admit and many, many voters are still unsure who they are going to vote for (even if they give pollsters a definite answer)
B. Survey USA’s polling methods are highly suspect. If true, that may very well extend to plenty of other pollsters as well.
Bottom Line: This election is NOT over and we should not accept, uncritically, what pollsters tell us.