Diary

McCain again trading above Obama

Currently on Intrade, it’s 50.5 for McCain and 47.5 for Obama. What a turnaround. Just 2 weeks ago it was 63 to 37. Just 2 months ago McCain was around 35. And when Obama clinched the nomination, he was below 30.

Does this prove anything? Just that McCain’s fortunes have turned around and that this is now TRULY a close race – not the “close” race that people were talking about in July because Obama was “only” ahead by 5 points when it should have been by 15.

Whether McCain can maintain this over the next 50 plus days remains to be seen. I don’t see him LOSING any of the debates, nor do I see Palin underperforming in her debate. “Ties” are the most likely. But if either of them can pull off a win (or cause their opponent to gaffe, which, as we all know, is more likely than not with Obama and Biden), then they certainly can win this in a walk.