It turns out Wisconsin actually 23,321 jobs in 2011 (57,221 more than estimates suggested). The newly-released figures are based on actual survey of more than 150,000 employers in the state.
This data, is based on the replies of 96 percent of Wisconsin employers, not a survey of only 4-5% of them, really shoots the Wisconsin Democrats’ jobs message all to hell.
The numbers come from a source familiar to many economists but one that hasn’t figured until now in the state’s highly politicized jobs debate heading into the June 5 recall election: the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
The new figures, provided to the Journal Sentinel on Tuesday, cover the final three months of 2011.
State officials said they show a gain of 23,321 jobs (public and private) between December 2010 and December 2011, which represents Gov. Scott Walker’s first full year in office.
That stands in sharp contrast to a commonly used and widely reported monthly jobs measure, the Current Employment Survey, which earlier this year showed an estimated loss of 33,900 jobs in Wisconsin for the same 12-month period.
Job numbers are reported in different ways, based on different sources, and it’s been common throughout the current recovery for different data to tell different stories.
But in this case, one set of well-publicized numbers (from the Current Employment Survey of businesses) put Wisconsin at the very bottom of 50 states in job creation during Walker’s first year. These figures were based on a sample of 3.5% of the state’s employers and are subject to significant revisions.
The other numbers, from the Quarterly Census, tell a more positive story, one the Walker administration is in a hurry to get out. They are based on a jobs count, not a survey. Each state gathers the quarterly census data from virtually all employers in both the public and private sectors, which are mandated to share staff and wage data as part of their tax and unemployment insurance reports. That makes it a more reliable source of employment data, state officials and many economists say.
At the same time, it’s highly unusual for a state to release this kind of data on its own before it is reviewed and officially released by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau, which has received and begun to review the new 2011 data from Wisconsin, isn’t scheduled to publish it until June 28, several weeks after the recall election.
Secretary of Workforce Development Reggie Newson denied in an interview Tuesday that the early release of the data was an effort to shape public opinion before the June 5 election.
“We have a responsibility to the job creators, the employers and the job-seekers . . . to make sure they have an accurate depiction of the true economic situation in the state of Wisconsin. They need this information to be accurate so they can make informed decisions. That’s why we are correcting the record,” said Newson. He called the previously released data showing job losses in Wisconsin “volatile, imprecise” and “unreliable” even though the Walker campaign is using the monthly data in TV ads because it shows job growth in early 2012.
The Barrett campaign accused Walker of trying to undo the damage from months of poor jobs reports by suddenly shifting to a different jobs measure.
Look for a strong push today from Governor Walker’s opposition to assert that these numbers are somehow fabricated. They will actually say that 96 percent of Wisconsin’s job providers lied. Bet on it.
Indeed, Walker has a vested interest in positive employement news from Wisconsin. His opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, is proving only interested in bad news.
Big Labor instigated this upcoming (June 5th) recall in reaction to changes in Wisconsin’s labor law that are proving to be quite popular with the public. So the Democrats have admitted the issue focus for this election can’t be on Act 10. Rather, they intended to campaign on the phony “War on Women” and Wisconsin’s job climate.
Time for plan C, which they detail in this strategy memo, below:
To: Interested Parties
Fr: Mike Tate, Democratic Party of Wisconsin
Dt May 13, 2012
Re: STATUS UPDATE – Strategic Plan to Defeat Scott Walker
A Letter from Mike Tate
In a hard-fought Democratic primary that was always honorable and remained focused on defeating Scott Walker, we saw four Democratic candidates who added to the conversation and who understood
Now, as the Party of the People, we all stand united behind Tom Barrett and with the grassroots movement that will remove Scott Walker from office, restore integrity and trust to public office and get Wisconsin working again.
After months of historic division, job loss, criminal corruption and partisan power grabs, Tom Barrett will put Wisconsin first and end Scott Walker’s ideological civil war.
As our new governor, Tom Barrett will work with all Wisconsinites to focus on education, jobs and economic security for working families, not tax breaks for the wealthy.
Scott Walker has shown time and again that he is somebody willing to divide neighbor-against-neighbor in a way that harms the working families of Wisconsin. Recently released video of Walker promising a Koch brothers strategist that he will “use divide and conquer” against the people of Wisconsin is a stark reminder that we cannot move forward with Scott Walker in office.
Tom Barrett offers a new start to practice a politics of unity and inclusion.
Tom Barrett will put Wisconsin first, but with just 23 days to go, we are in a race against not only the clock, but also the $25 million Scott Walker was able to amass from out-of-state special interests.
That’s why I’m sending you this status update today – so you can see the progress we’ve made and what we still need to do in just 23 days to finish the job of recalling Scott Walker. Momentum is on our side and we have the more than 35,000 volunteers to prove it. We’ve activated our neighbor-to-neighbor program of people talking to people in their front lawns, in their kitchens, and in their living rooms about the future of our state and it’s stronger than any amount of sleazy special interest cash Scott Walker can haul in.
But the job isn’t done. Please take a moment to review the attached documents, share them with your friends and chip in with a grassroots donation of $5 to defeat Scott Walker on June 5 by visiting http://www.wisdems.org/strategy.
Mike Tate Chair, Democratic Party of Wisconsin
Polling on Scott Walker and the recall has remained remarkably consistent since he launched his ideological attack on workers and families last year – Walker remains the most polarizing governor in the country.
Since Tuesday’s election results, Wisconsin voters are now focused on what’s at stake on June 5th and are united and ready to work hard to elect Tom Barrett. See the latest polling below.
Tom Barrett – Prepared to Win
Latest public independent polling shows Tom Barrett in the lead
A new poll from the Marquette University Law School shows a virtual tie between Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and Gov. Scott Walker. Numbers show Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett leads Gov. Scott Walker 47-46 percent among all registered voters. (The poll interviewed 707 registered Wisconsin voters by both landline and cell phone March 22-25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points for the full sample.)
NBC/ Marist poll of Wisconsin shows Republican Gov. Scott Walker lagging behind a Democratic candidate; 48 percent of Wisconsin voters saying they’ll vote for the eventual Democratic candidate and only 46 percent indicating they will support Gov. Scott Walker. (The poll interviewed 2,792 registered voters March 26-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 1.9 percentage points for the full sample.)
There is no question that the recall election will come down to turnout, and a robust field and Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort will be a critical element for a winning campaign.
Every weekend leading up to Election Day weekend, our offices will be doing ‘Get Out the Vote’ practice rounds to make sure we’re ready to finish strong. Our work between now and Election Day is crucial to turn out the votes we need to elect Tom Barrett on June 5th.
Since we’ve started last November, our organizing to recall Scott Walker has been nothing short of incredible. Over the last 6 weeks to date, we’ve made over 409,000 phone calls and door knocks from 48 different offices throughout the state of Wisconsin. Between now and Election Day, we will make 1.2 million additional door phone calls and door knocks to identify the votes we need.
Our plan to win on June 5th includes aggressive goals to make sure we talk to voters in every corner of the state. We’re going to make sure they’re registered and ready to cast their ballot.
In order to meet our goals we will need to recruit over 23,645 different volunteer shifts to: • Knock727,890Doors
• Make 472,200 Calls
Democratic Party of Wisconsin ?110 King Street, Suite 203 ?Madison WI 53703 ?www.wisdems.org ?608.255.5172 2 Authorized and Paid for by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, Mike Tate, Chair
We’ll need everyone to help us Get Out the Vote on Election Day. In the coming weeks, our field program will use the best practices we’ve learned to continue identifying our voters. The work between now and Election Day is key to make sure our voters get to the polls to cast their ballot.
Neighbor to Neighbor
Since Tuesday night, Tom Barrett has continued to travel throughout Wisconsin bringing neighbors together in communities across the state.
With Front Yard event stops in Wauwatosa, De Pere, Schofield, La Crosse, and Eau Claire amongst others thus far, the conversations of Wisconsites everywhere are focused on bringing us together to put Wisconsin first.
Tom Barrett’s plan to put Wisconsin first focuses on:
• • •
Growing Wisconsin’s economy; Educating out children and retraining our workforce; and Ending Scott Walker’s War on Women.
“It is time to end Scott Walker’s civil war in Wisconsin and heal this state by bringing people together. We need to stop the devastating cuts to education and focus on putting people back to work and creating jobs for all of Wisconsin.”
Pictures taken Saturday in La Crosse, WI.
Democratic Party of Wisconsin ?110 King Street, Suite 203 ?Madison WI 53703 ?www.wisdems.org ?608.255.5172 3 Authorized and Paid for by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, Mike Tate, Chair
The Democratic Party of Wisconsin employs aggressive earned and paid media efforts to keep Scott Walker on the defensive and spread our key message points:
• Scott Walker lied to the people about what he would do as governor
• Scott Walker and his administration are not working for Wisconsin middle-class families (example: cutting public education by $2.6 billion to pay for more than $2.3 billion in handouts to out-of-state corporations and the super-rich)
• Scott Walker is solely interested in power grabs for himself and his cronies (examples: redistricting process in which Walker’s legislative Republicans signed secrecy oaths)
• Scott Walker is out-of-touch and too extreme for Wisconsin families (example: Walker supports amending our Wisconsin constitution to ban common forms of birth control and outlaw abortion across the board — even in cases of rape and incest, or if a woman’s life is in danger)
Our efforts yield an average of more than $40,000 per month in earned media in the way of television and radio appearances, as well as placements in print media.
Additionally, our communications and research staff daily engages with Scott Walker and his allies in a rapid response style, calling out hypocrisy, manipulation and outright lies in both traditional and social media. We make frequent use of the thousands of hours of tracking footage we have acquired of Scott Walker’s public and private appearances since 2009.
Since the recall effort began, the ongoing criminal investigation of Scott Walker’s current and former administration has developed into a full-blown scandal of historic implications that reinforces the image of Scott Walker’s administration as being corrupt.
With the creation of a criminal defense fund, the scandal appears to be leading directly towards Scott Walker. According to Wisconsin law, this fund can only be established if Scott Walker is “being investigated, being charged with or has been convicted of a criminal violation.”
Scott Walker, the ONLYgovernor in Wisconsin history with a criminal defense fund, has refused to disclose the donors to that fund, which recently received a $60,000 infusion from his campaign war chest as part of the ongoing criminal corruption probe, despite claiming that he would be the most “transparent” governor in Wisconsin history.
This historic criminal corruption scandal has already led to the arrests of six of Walker’s top aides and associates.
To inform voters of the ongoing criminal probe, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin has established an interactive micro-site at http:/ / www.WalkerInvestigation.com. This website invites members
Democratic Party of Wisconsin ?110 King Street, Suite 203 ?Madison WI 53703 ?www.wisdems.org ?608.255.5172 4 Authorized and Paid for by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, Mike Tate, Chair
of the public to join the investigation and crack the case. This site is supported with online advertising, email and social media campaigns.
Digital Strategy and Online Organizing
The Democratic Party of Wisconsin has invested in an innovative online organizing toolset that has provided us with an unprecedented level of integration between our online efforts and our field program.
To date our online efforts have performed well and continue to help us get our message out. Check out the statistics to date:
• Youtube: Our videos have been viewed more than 309,000 times • Facebook: Our page has grown to more than 31,000 likes, making us the most liked and
active state party in the country. • Facebook: In total, we reach more than 117,000 people in more than 20 countries each
week on FB • Website: We average double the number of unique visitors to wisdems.org than to
scottwalker.org. Online Organizing
We know that they best way to reach people is to meet them where they are. If we can’t contact them by phone or at their door through our field program, we want to meet them in other ways – a key medium being the internet.
Through our social media and online recall office – people are able to see how they can get involved and sign up for upcoming events in their community.
Key resources volunteers and voters can use to get the most up-to-date information include:
The official Recall Scott Walker headquarters – http://www.wisdems.org/RecallHQ. • You can sign up to volunteer, find a local office, learn more about upcoming events, learn
more about the state senate recall elections, and get the information you need to share with voters about why they should support Tom Barrett and his ideas for bringing our state together.
Candidate Tom Barrett’s website – www.barrettforwisconsin.com • Get the latest from Tom Barrett’s campaign.
Important Voter Information – www.ownyourvotewi.com • A great resource for the information you need to know before you cast your ballot on
Election Day. Find the facts you need, where you can get registered, key dates to be aware of and additional help for students and other voters to cast their ballot.
Democratic Party of Wisconsin ?110 King Street, Suite 203 ?Madison WI 53703 ?www.wisdems.org ?608.255.5172 5 Authorized and Paid for by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, Mike Tate, Chair
Calendar of Important Dates
May 9 – First day of open registration
May 16 – Last day of open voter registration.
Note: You can still register at your municipal clerk’s office through June 1st and at your
polling location on Election Day.
May 19 – Statewide Day of Action May 21 – First day of in-person absentee voting for June 5th Recall Election May 31 – Last day to request absentee ballot by mail for June 5 Recall Election June 1 – Last day of in-person absentee voting for June 5 Recall Election June 2-5 – Get Out The Vote (GOTV) weekend June 5 – Recall Election – same day registration still available
Democratic Party of Wisconsin ?110 King Street, Suite 203 ?Madison WI 53703 ?www.wisdems.org ?608.255.5172 6 Authorized and Paid for by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, Mike Tate, Chair