Diary

Rasmussen's Good News for McCain

A number of bloggers are commenting on the narrowing of Barack Obama’s edge in the polls, confirmed in the latest Rasmussen survey. What’s interesting in today’s Rasmussen report however, is what you see when you read their summary:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24 (see trends). One percent (1%) of voters prefer a third-party option and 2% are undecided. **Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five. Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.**

If you’re Barack Obama, you can’t be happy to hear that:

1) John McCain has narrowed the polling gap dramatically;2) You’re tied among the voters who are most likely to show to the polls; and,3) Your lead grows larger among groups more likely to fail to vote.