Diary

The Refugee Risk Democrats are Willing to Take (With Us)

All 3 Democratic Presidential candidates continue to support importing Syrian refugees into the United States, even following the #ParisAttacks. Martin O’Malley explained,  “Accommodating 65,000 refugees in our country today, people of 320 million, is akin to making room for 6.5 more people in a baseball stadium with 32,000.”

Someone ought to remind the Governor that there were only 3 terrorists who targeted the nearly 80,000 person stadium in Paris.

O’Malley’s math reminds me of Edward Norton’s monologue from Fight Club:

“A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don’t do one.”

In the case of refugees: A Is the number of Refugees. B is the probability that one or more is a terrorist. C is the number of voters who would blame the Democratic party if a terrorist(s) gets through and successfully carries out attack. X equals the overall negative political impact on the Democrat party.

Democrats are weighing the risk of X against the political fallout of admitting they were wrong about bringing in Syrian refugees. Apparently, X does not outweigh the damage of Democrats admitting they were wrong because they’re not changing course. Such an admission would play right in to Republican claims that Democrats are weak on national security. On the other hand, while bringing Syrian refugees in carries a risk of terrorism, it’s not a guaranteed outcome. Also the likelihood of a terrorists attack by a refugee prior to the election is even less.

But there’s always a risk.  And apparently it’s a risk they’re willing to take, with us.