Diary

New Poll is Good News for Republicans and Trump

And no, it’s not Rasmussen or Fox News.

The Politico/Morning Consult poll, one of the mainstays for judging Presidential approval, is out with some surprising results this morning.

The poll also shows a slight uptick in Trump’s approval rating: 45 percent approve of the president’s job performance, up from 43 percent last week. The percentage of voters who disapprove ticked down from 54 percent last week to 52 percent in the new survey.

It takes a while to get there, as the lede is buried, but eventually we find that President Trump’s approval rating has climbed to 45%. Given all the breathless reporting of him being in the 30s over the past few months, you’d think his rebound would be big news, but nah.

I’d guess this uptick is likely due to his handling of the hurricanes as well as a lack of any major slip ups in the past few months (there’s always something to cry about when it comes to Trump but we haven’t had him accuse a woman of bleeding lately, for example). Other polls showing increased confidence in the economy may also be helping him. This now marks three straight polls showing his approval rating in the mid-40s.

There’s more good news for Republicans in the crosstabs (which Politico conveniently doesn’t report on).

The generic ballot only shows Democrats leading by two points, at 41/39. That’s a big deal, as keeping the margin that close will almost certainly prelude Republican pickups in the Senate and not much turnover in the House. Republicans are trusted more on the economy 42/36, the biggest factor that drives votes. They also score higher on jobs, immigration, and national security.

Politico leads the story by pronouncing that only 48% approve of the new tax reform framework. That may look bad as a headline, but it’s actually a large plurality who support it, with only 37% opposing.

I think there’s another point to be made in all this as well.

The media’s power is severly overstated. They simply do not have the ability to shift public opinion in the ways they used to. If you just read headlines and watched the news, you’d think Republicans are in absolute turmoil, everyone wants to ban guns, and that Jimmy Kimmel is the great moral arbitrator of our time (credit Ben Shapiro for that line).

In reality, most people aren’t dancing to the tune of the Acela Corridor and it’s pronouncements on the issues.

That’s a good thing.