Diary

The NY Times Explains How Jeb Can Win

Nothing has worked so far, but he and his superPAC still have lots of cash on hand. The New York Times explains what “aides and key allies” say is his 6-point path to victory.

1. Stay on the Attack
They will continue to attack Trump and Hillary and have started attacking the other GOP candidates. But while his attacks may have helped ding Trump a bit, they have helped his other opponents. So one has to wonder how this strategy is worthwhile, except in the minds of people who need to spend money to show they are “doing something”.

2. Avoid Embarrassment in Iowa
This bar is set low: Finish hopefully 3rd but no worse than 5th and ahead of Christie. RCP currently has him 5th at 4.8%, behind Carson at 9.3 and Rubio at 12.0 but ahead of Paul at 2.8 and Christie/Huck/Carly at 2.3. Carson could keep dropping, but his supporters are not going to Bush. Christie is concentrating on NH so maybe he won’t have an Iowa surge. It looks to me like not much will change in Iowa other than shuffling among the top four.

3. Win New Hampshire – or at Least Come in the Top 3
At least this is a “stretch” goal. RCP has his 6th at 7.8%. He’s already passed Carson but who else could he leapfrog – Kasich who is at 9.0? He has no chance of catching Cruz and Christie, who are tied for 3rd at 11.5. He can do NH town halls 24/7 until the primary, but I don’t see him making up a 4-point gap.

Let’s pause and see what we have so far. #1 will happen until he runs out of money, #2 will happen no matter what Bush does, and #3 is impossible. Now it starts to get silly.

4. Woo [mc_name name=’Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’G000359′ ] (R-SC)
RCP has Graham at a whopping 0.6% nationally (higher than he registers in IA and NH). The might as well go after Pataki and Gilmore people while they’re at it. Nobody outside SC who could care less whether Lindsey Graham endorses him. Heck he’s only 1.7 in SC, so even people there don’t seem to care about him in this race.

5. The Big Brother, and the Bush Alumni Network
Every GOP voter knows that George W Bush was 100x better President than Obama, but so what? You have to believe they’ve already tapped out the Dubya donor network – as is often talked about here at RS, small donors are key going down the stretch.

6. The Advertising Blitz
The first paragraph here shows how ridiculous this is. His paid “experts” have forgotten the “when you find yourself in a hole, quit digging” adage. Doing more of the same thing faster that’s already not working is a sign they have no idea how to get people to like Jeb. Bush seems to think he and Trump are the only two GOP candidates still standing.

Mr. Bush’s super PAC, has so far spent tens of millions in television ads that have largely failed to help his standing in the polls. But the group will continue the ad campaign, keeping its focus on Mr. Trump, but also beginning to contrast Mr. Bush with his rivals for the party’s more mainstream base.

It doesn’t appear we’re going to see anything from the Bush campaign except more negative ads and spending lots of good money after bad.