We have proof that extending all tax rates would pass the Senate

TPM reports that a Senate aide is saying that – barring a “stunning turn of events” – there will be no vote before the election on delaying the Jan 1st tax hikes.

There is only one way to interpret this. The GOP would be in position to force a vote on a bill or an amendment that all rates be extended. Reid’s ideal scenario would be:
– GOP gets up or down vote to extend all tax rates in exchange for no filibuster.
– GOP bill to extend all tax rates fails.
– Dem bill to hike taxes on “the rich” passes.

You can bet your bottom dollar that if Reid had the votes to pull off the above that he’d find time to hold the vote before the election, so that the Dems could say they’ve saved the day for the little guy.

Since he’s not going to hold such a vote, the only possible interpretation is that he’s counted the votes and that a bill to delay the tax increases for everyone would pass.

Well either that or you can believe this load of rubbish from the TPM source.

The aide said it’s already a winning message without a vote since Obama and Democrats have framed the debate as the Republicans being for the rich and Democrats wanting to help the middle class. Others have made similar arguments, but several lawmakers have said they think a vote is the only way to score a political victory. The senior aide doesn’t think so.

“We have a winning message now, why muddy it up with a failed vote, because, of course, Republicans are going to block everything,” the aide said.