Yesterday the Washington Post had an article lamenting that an NBC/WSJ poll shows Obama’s popularity among white voters plummeting, which could hurt the Democrats in the midterm elections. These two excerpts make it clear to me what the bottom line is that they either fail to see or refuse to see.
“Since in the past House elections white voters tended to represent the independent vote, [the midterms] will surely be devastating for Democrats running in an election that will be a referendum on the Obama agenda,” predicted one senior Democratic operative who closely tracks House races.
How is it that independents are overwhelmingly white? Could it be that the overwhelming majority of black and Hispanic voters are liberals who always vote Democratic?
In the June 2008 NBC-WSJ survey, 37 percent of white men and 26 percent of white women approved of the job Bush was doing. In the June 2010 poll, an identical 37 percent of white men approved of Obama’s handling of his job, as did 35 percent of white women.
Those numbers are all the more striking when viewed against overall perceptions of the two presidents. In June 2008, just 28 percent approved of the job Bush was doing while a whopping 66 percent disapproved. Obama, by contrast, is running far stronger with the nation as a whole, with ratings of 45 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval in last month’s NBC-WSJ survey.
Doesn’t this reinforce what was implied earlier, making you draw this two-part conclusion?
- Most white voters base their approval on their perception of the president’s performance.
- Most black voters base their approval on skin color or on party affiliation – take your pick.
The Democrats of course see the danger in this. Is their answer to have Obama perform in a way that would please voters across the spectrum? NAH!! It’s to make sure that they get all the non-white Obamatons out to vote this fall to offset the open-minded white independent voters who have soured on Obama and the Democrats.
To avoid such losses, the Democratic National Committee has committed to spending tens of millions of dollars to re-create (or come somewhere near re-creating) the 2008 election model, in which Democrats relied heavily on higher-than-normal turnout from young people and strong support from African American and Hispanic voters.