If Obama is going to offer a new HCR bill, why should anyone vote to go nuclear?

As many people have pointed out, if Pelosi had the votes to pass the Senate bill then the vote would have already taken place. Another signal seems to be this talk of Obama offering some “smaller” bill.

If Pelosi had the votes – or for that matter if she thought there was any chance that she would ever get the votes – then why would Obama need to swoop in with a new bill? And why should any House member consider voting for the Senate bill if a new bill is going to come along anyway?

And of course it’s also interesting to note that we heard at least 50 times at the summit that 1) there was no way to have anything smaller – it had to be all or nothing – and 2) there was no way that they were going to start over.

If Obama does offer something new, then that seems to guarantee that the old bills were dead and that all the “we will have the votes” Dem leaders knew all along they were lying through their teeth. (Not that it would be the first time of course.)

Maybe the plan is that this “Obama bill” will be the proposed reconciliation method, but it’s hard to see that flying. Am I missing something? This seems to be more tied up in knots than it was before the summit.