Diary

Another take on the presidential election numbers

I took a little bit of grief over my view of Neil’s analysis earlier this week, so I wanted to share my own perspective on why Tuesday was such a downer for me. I was under the impression McCain/Palin were closing the gap etc., so it made this even more stinging.

The table below shows in no particular order the states going to Obama by double digits according to RCP. They may not be the latest set of results, but it will suffice here. These add up to 262 EVs. Another 16 EVs are from states Obama won by 8-9% (CO and IA).

So even if we had flipped 2-3% of Obama voters or gotten 5-6% of people who stayed home to vote McCain, he still would have lost the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. This is why I contend that Tuesday was not even close. I’m not trying to say anything how conservative or liberal the country may be, just that Tuesday was a blowout according to the numbers.

State Gap EV
CT 21 7
DE 25 3
DC 86 3
IL 25 21
ME 17 4
MD 23 10
MI 16 17
MN 10 10
NM 15 5
CA 24 55
HI 45 4
VT 35 3
MA 26 12
NH 10 4
NJ 15 15
PA 11 21
NY 25 31
RI 28 4
WI 13 10
NV 12 5
OR 14 7
WA 17 11