I’d like to thank Alex Poulter of Political CHIPS for his cooperation on this poll, which you can find below.
A brief summary of the poll, conducted Friday 9/19, Saturday 9/20, and Monday 9/22/2014:
- Republican Kris Kobach was up 48-42%.
- Republican Sam Brownback was down 46-44%.
- Republican Pat Roberts was significantly behind in a 2-way race with Greg Orman, 51-38%. With all four potential candidates on the ballot (including the Democrat and Libertartarian), Orman was ahead 46-36%.
- Republican Ken Selzer was winning the Insurance Commissioner race 47-32%.
- Obama has a 32% job approval rating.
- Brownback has a 36% job approval rating.
The margin of error is 5.9%. A couple notes:
- As of August 2014, 46% of Johnson County voters were registered as Republicans. But among the voters who actually voted in either November 2012 or November 2010, about 52% of voters were registered Republican. And about 61% of November 2010 voters were Republican. I’m among those who view 2014 as much closer to 2010, rather than the mixed 2012 election or the pro-Democratic 2006 election — Republicans nation-wide are far more motivated to vote, and Independents distrust Democrats more than they distrust Republicans. Kansas is somewhat unique with a rather incompetent state Republican Party (or maybe that’s the norm around the country?), which will certainly damage the overall Republican ticket, but I think the wind, nonetheless, remains at the backs of Republicans.
- Johnson County typically votes very similarly to the rest of the state, in general elections. You can compare past elections at the Secretary of State’s Web site and the Johnson County Election Office Web site. I’ll quote an article in the liberal publication “Mother Jones” that happens to be published today, September 25, and references Johnson County: “These well-to-do suburbs of Kansas City constitute 20 percent of the state’s population. The entire slate of 34 state senators and representatives from the county are Republican, save for three Democrats. The region actually has a longer streak than the entire state in terms of voting against national Democrats: the last to win a majority in the county was Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. Brownback won here with 63 percent of the vote in 2010.”
Benjamin Hodge is a political contributor to “The Conscience of Kansas” radio program on KRMR 105.7 FM hosted by Paul Ibbetson. Hodge is chairman of the State and Local Reform Group of Kansas and a Republican precinct committeeman in Johnson County. He has served as a member of the Kansas House of Representatives, an at-large member of the Johnson County Community College Board of Trustees, a member of the governing board of the Johnson County Mental Health Center, chairman of Johnson County Government’s 2005 Special Committee on Property Rights, and a delegate to the Kansas Republican Party. His public policy record is recognized by Americans for Prosperity, the Kansas Association of Broadcasters, the Kansas Press Association, the Kansas Sunshine Coalition for Open Government, the NRA, Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly, the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), Kansas’ largest pro-life group, the Kansas Chamber of Commerce, and The Gardner News editorial board.