Diary

Obama’s FUBAR economics (Fouled Up Beyond All Recognition)

Anyone that has worked around men in a shop may have heard the expression FUBAR. It is beyond SNAFU – Situation Normal All Fouled Up (alright, I cleaned it up the language a little). As in, we have here the most FUBAR situation I have ever seen. Like that sinking feeling on seeing the Blue Screen of Death and the blinking cursor with the statement “DRIVE NOT FOUND”.

In 1,000 years Barack will be a curse, like: “boy you sure Baracked that up”. No one will know where the phrase came from. Kind of like naming the Goat that God instructed the ancient Israelites to lead away from their camp to take the blame for all their misdeeds as a “scapegoat”. (Lev 6:10)

I have images of great events in history: Noah’s Ark with animals two abreast rambling down a gangway, Hammurabi riding on an Elephant, Nero fiddling and Barack looking like Bill the Cat when he finally wakes up to what he has done. He and Nancy Pelosi are saying “party on Dude…..” (and blaming Bush) while the world is falling apart around them.

Commerce is trillions of individual financial transactions happening all over the planet. Some transactions (like food) will happen to some degree regardless of a toxic environment. But some transactions are more optional and occur only when a willing buyer transacts with a willing seller for an optional purchase. Barack’s policy pronouncements have made buyers around the world stop and consider the consequences of their action.

I see commerce as a series of gears each inside the other in concentric rings, each driving the next ring. The innermost gears spin very fast, they represent everyday transactions and are the basis of commerce. As one progresses outward the gears run slower but with more power. As a breaking force is applied to the outer gears the system slows, with the least slowdown felt by the innermost gears. In such a complex system some “lash” or slack allows the outer gears to almost stop while the innermost gears keep running to take up the slack. In recessions the outer gears are slowed down gradually and eventually the breaking force takes up the slack in the system before slowing the innermost gears. The stimulus package and budget proposal are sudden shocks to this system and have momentarily slowed commerce at all levels without taking up the slack. The reason that buyers are hesitating up and down the line is not knowing if they will have future income to cover any but the most life sustaining transactions.

This has happened all at once, everyone is hesitating because a sudden jolt is expected, not because anything has actually happened, the spending has not occurred; the taxes have not been collected. The system is paralyzed by FEAR at all discretionary levels. Normally the breaking force is applied gradually. Jobs are lost and lives are disrupted gradually. The system is frozen by FEAR and will only come unstuck by HOPE. This is all a mental phenomenon with real physical consequences. If HOPE is not introduced in some form to counteract the FEAR soon (such as a move to repeal the stimulus law) the jolt will slow the innermost gears or the system will break from the strain. How long will this take? No one can know. One thing is for sure, the longer things are frozen the more stress builds and the more destructive the result will be.

This will go down in history as the greatest FUBAR of all time in any case.