I have been thinking for some time now that your three most important states for 2008 are Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia. Take a look at the map above. This is my guess as to how the map will shake out. It’s a foregone conclusion that New Mexico and Iowa go blue this cycle. This leaves really 3 states that will play a crucial role in determining the next President. Let’s take a look at three plausible scenarios :
Michigan (17) flips to RepublicansVirginia (13) flips to Democrats
This leaves the race 269-260 Republicans. Therefore, Colorado decides the election. If Colorado stays red, McCain is your next President. If Colorado goes blue, there would be a 269-269 tie. McCain then wins based on a vote of 29-22 (each state gets one vote).
Michigan (17) stays with DemocratsVirginia (13) stays with RepublicansNevada (5) flips to Democrats
This leaves the race 269-260 Democrats. Once again, it’s Colorado that will decide this election. If NV(5) does somehow go blue, Colorado would still give the Republicans the 269-269 tie that would be a win.
Ohio (20) flips to Democrats
In this scenario, Republicans would need to win all three of CO, MI, and VA to retain the White House.
There are a few wildcards at play. Nevada and Montana. Obama is polling well here as of now, but these states are reliably Republican and I feel will stay Red in November.
If Ohio and/or Florida go blue, Obama will win this election. However, Obama’s not making inroads with core constituencies in either state so it’s an uphill battle for him.
In conclusion, you can see why CO, MI, and VA are essential for John McCain. Being competitive in these 3 states ultimately will decide this election. I believe this is why Tim Kaine and Mitt Romney will be your Vice President selections.
Kaine is going to be asked to do one thing….deliver Virginia. If he can do that, then Obama only needs to then retain Michigan to become President.
However, this is also why I think McCain is going to counter with Romney. Romney is the only Republican who CAN deliver Michigan to the Republicans. Romney is also very well liked in Colorado and Nevada, and will go a long way in keeping these states Red.
So folks, remember…..as Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia go……………so goes the Presidency.