Diary

If He Could Make It There, He Could Make It Anywhere

An interesting poll out of New York shows Barack Obama up only 46-41%, a 5-point lead. The poll is not from a major company. It’s from Sienna College. However, Sienna was in line with most of the polls taken previously. The last major national poll out of New York was Rasmussen that Obama up 19, Sienna had him up 18.

Ah, New York is this year’s Hawaii. In 2004, Hawaii had two polls that showed narrow Bush leads, but Kerry won the state by 9 (as opposed to the 18 that Al Gore won it by in 2000.) Who knows, if may have been winnable had Bush put more effort into the state than merely sending Cheney out for a rally. Of course, should McCain compete for New York, it’ll take a lot more than Sarah Palin holding a rally on the tarmac at Laguardia.

Is there anything that could facilitate a switch to McCain? Sure, here are some good ones:

  1. 9/11 happened there. McCain looks like a serious leader whose ready to be President-Obama not so much. New York has a lot at stake in the terrorism issue, more than perhaps any other state in the union.
  2. Corruptocrats: New York has had a big problem with government corruption, most recently with Democrat Elliot Spitzer’s disgraceful resignation. The city’s financial sector and economy has been wracked by the fall of giants like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Maybe giving reformers a chance makes sense.  
  3. Payback for Hillary: This is Senator Clinton’s home state and loyal New Yorkers could exact some revenge on Barack Obama.
  4. Female VP: New Yorkers who wanted a female Vice-President could have one in Sarah Palin.
  5. No worries about Roe v. Wade: New Yorkers who are pro-abortion don’t have to worry about Roe v. Wade being overturned, overturning Roe would only send the issue back to the states and New York isn’t about to ban abortion.

Does McCain carry New York? Barring a national landslide in which he also carries Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey, too, I seriously doubt it. Does he compete for it? Not if he’s smart. New York, like its neighbor New Jersey has to be rated a distraction from the current battlegrounds.

In other polling news…

  • New polls out this week. In Pennsylvania, Fox/Rasmussen has this race tied. The internals are even worse for Obama, by a 50-41% margin, Keystone State voters say they trust McCain more and if they had to ask advice about the most important decisions in the life, McCain would be their go to guy, 52-39%. Finally, McCain outdoes Obama in favorable ratings 60-55%, thought Obama enjoys a light (33-30%) edge in strongly favorable. For the fourths traight survey, Obama’s lead is 3% or less, well within the margin of error. McCain’s favorables mean this is going to be close. Let’s move this to toss-up:

Other states:

Ohio: Fox/Rasmussen: McCain +3, Survey USA: McCain:+4, Suffolk University: McCain +4. After months as a toss-up, this state is definitely trending McCain.

Florida: Fox/Rasmussen: McCain +5. This is up from the previous poll showing it tied.

Virginia: Fox/Rasmussen: Tied, Survey USA: Obama +4. I’m leaving this as a toss-up. I should note that no poll other than Survey USA has shown an Obama lead of more than 2 this year.

Colorado: Fox/Rasmussen: McCain +2. Up until now, the credible polling had been pointing towards Obama. The last five credible polls had an Obama lead. I’ll wait a little while before moving this back to toss-up and leave at Leans Obama.

Iowa: Des Moines Register: Obama + 12.  Two questions. Is this even still a swing state? If not, why are McCain and Palin holding a rally there later this month?

Utah: Rasmussen: McCain by 32, Deseret News: McCain by 38.  Obama may close to within 29 before this is all over…