Diary

Electoral Map Update: Colorado Leans Obama

Lots of polls yesterday and so far today. Here are my thoughts:

  • Colorado: PPP: Obama up 1, Insider Advantage: Obama up 3. The only poll McCain has led recently in a worthless CNN/Time Registered voter poll. For now, let’s go ahead and put Colorado as "Leans Obama"

  • Michigan: Insider Advantage: McCain by 1, Rasmussen: Obama by 5. Inconclusive and Rasmussen’s an outlier here with recent polls showing Obama leads of 1 and 2 points. Still toss-up.
  • Ohio: Strategic Vision: McCain by 4, Quinnipiac: Obama by 5, Insider Advantage: McCain by 1. Quinnipiac is an outlier with recent polling data. Still Leans McCain.
  • Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac: Obama by 3. This 3 state polls showing Obama up by 2 or 3. Still, I have to call this, Leans Obama. McCain hasn’t led any poll since April.
  • Nevada: Insider Advantage: McCain by 1. Still toss-up.
  • Washington: Rasmussen: Obama by 2. With the choice of Governor Palin, you’ve got to watch these Pacific Northwest States to see if Obama’s lead shrinks. In this case, Obama’s lead has dropped 10 points. This poll goes along with a Survey USA poll showing Obama up by only 4. Still, it’s only 2 polls, we’ll see if this develops further.
  • North Carolina: Civitas/Tel Opinion: McCain by 3 and Research 2000: McCain by 17.  The state can’t seem to make up its mind. Survey USA had McCain by 20, Public Policy Polling had McCain by 4. Either it’s the biggest surprise swing state or it’s heading the direction of other States where Obama tried but ultimately failed to gain traction. Leans McCain. 
  • Florida: Insider Advantage: McCain by 8, Quinnipiac: McCain by 7. Obviously the pollsters are just trying to get back at me for saying this one was in play.
  • Georgia: It was one of Obama’s target states that bit the dust. Insider Advantage: McCain by 18. Strategic Vision: McCain by 13.