Diary

Obama's Western Expansion Failing

There are a new round of polls out. Here are my thoughts:

  • CNN/Time Polls are jokes with a Registered Voter sample. Whether it’s John McCain leading in Missouri and Virginia or Obama in New Hampshire and Michigan, the sample is so bad, I can’t take them seriously. Worse yet, their silly polls will mess up the Real Clear Politics average that doesn’t distinguish between good and bad polls. With so many outfits out there doing legitimate polls, CNN/Time is annoying.
  • The big story from today’s polling is the continued blunting of Obama’s attempt to "expand the map" in the West. He’d targed Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota. Yesterday, a Rasmussen poll in Montana yesterday showed McCain up 11. In what should be a surprise to no one, Alaska is out of reach with McCain/Palin up by 31.  North Dakota had been a  state that both Rasmussen and Daily Kos showed Obama within 3. The latest Rasmussen Poll shows McCain up 14. While some have compared Palin’s accent to that of the Police Chief in Fargo, I think her rural values are key in a big time rural state. North Dakota is a mostly rural state, Obama should have written it off after the "bitter clingers" remark.
  • Obama’s opportunities to "expand the map" are really limited to 2 states, Virginia and North Carolina. The other states, Obama hopes to carry that Bush won are best described as Purple States that went to the GOP by miniscule margins (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri)
  • New Mexico is getting interesting. The New Mexico Rasmussen Poll shows McCain up by 2, the Previous Rasmussen Poll had Obama up 4, and the Mason Dixon Poll prior to that, had McCain up 4. If these candidates keep trading leads, we’ll have to move New Mexico to toss-up from Leans Obama, but not quite just yet.
  • The Strategic Vision Poll in Pennsylvania shows Obama’s lead at only 2, this follows on a Fox/Rasmussen poll showing the same thing.
  • Finally, yesterday I told you that a Survey USA poll in North Carolina showed John McCain up 20, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm shows McCain up only 4.  I don’t dismiss PPP lightly and Survey USA’s poll was a huge shift. One of these polls is an outlier, which one is accurate will be confirmed by future polling.