Diary

My Projections in the House, Senate, Governor, and Presidential Races

These are depressing. Stop now if you don’t want to be saddened.

HOUSE

I don’t follow all the races. But my projection is Ds picking up 18-20 seats. Rs picking up 2-5 seats. And the net change to be 15-18 seat pick up for Ds.

SENATE

Ds will pick up NM, CO, VA, AK, and NH. Period.

I project Ds will also win OR and NC.

Rs will retain GA, KY, and MS easily.

Rs will also hold MN but it will be narrow.

NC and MN will be the closest SEN races with NC going D and MN going R.

Overall, the net change will be D+7 giving the Ds a 58-42 margin. Joe Lieberman may caucus with the GOP if he is pushed out of his chairmanships, thus making the Senate 57-43.

GOVERNOR

Ds pick up MO. NC and WA will be close. I project Rs to pick up NC, but fall short in WA. Overall, the net change will be No Change.

PRESIDENT

Start with the Bush-Kerry map. Here are my projected changes:

Obama wins IA, NM, CO, OH, VA, FL, NV and MO.

McCain holds onto NC, GA, and IN.

This would lead to wide Obama EV margin: 349-189.

[UPDATE: I realize I should add a national popular vote prediction. I project a 53-46 vote tally for Obama.]

LOCAL STUFF

As a current resident of NC with a close PRES, SEN, and GOV race, I have projected the state to go McCain (R), Hagan (D), and McCrory (R).