Diary

Obama Gets His Convention Bounce

Over night, four new polls were released showing Obama up 9, 7, 8, and 6 respectively. The Rasmussen Tracker jumped from Obama +3 the last two day to Obama +6. The other three national polls are not trackers.

Importantly, all four polls were taken after the DNC and after the Palin announcement. Contrary to the budding optimistic view that Palin stole the DNC bounce away (based on some movement in tracking polls), it seems Obama received a decent 6-8 point bounce.

The Palin pick is still recent and most people have not solidified their views of her; however, it seems the selection has not swung swing voters. As excited as conservative activists are, they were already willing to vote McCain if perhaps unenthusiastically. Palin may eventually help the fight for swing voters but showing competence in unscripted interviews, but she could end up being an electoral liability if she comes off as not knowing or understanding national issues. Fortunately, in the end, people don’t vote based on VPs.

[UPDATE 5:36 EDT] – Gallup Tracker sings the same song with an Obama +8 showing after two days of Obama +6. Obama actually hits 50% for the first time. The Convention Bounce has put Obama in his best position ever according to the Gallup Tracker.Here are some of the comments from the polls:

CBS:”Obama wins the support of independent voters in this poll; before the convention, McCain had a 12 point advantage with this group. Obama’s lead among women has also grown, to 14 points from 8 points before the convention.”

That swing among independents is exactly what one would expect to see in a “convention bounce.” Feelings about Obama also shot up among the “understands people like you” type questions.

USA Today/Gallup:”Obama has eased concerns about experience, but they remain a significant factor. Fifty percent of those surveyed say they are very or somewhat concerned about his experience. Before the convention, 57% were.”

“McCain’s favorable-unfavorable rating was 54%-38%, a healthy mark but his highest unfavorable this year. Obama’s rating was 61%-32%.”