On the Gallup poll showing a tie--not reliable

Yesterday, Gallup’s weekly generic-ballot poll showed the Republicans losing their 10-point advantage and the parties now even at 46.

For the benefit of those of you who do not obsessively read polls, Gallup is notoriously erratic in its polling numbers.  10 days before the 2000 election, I recall, they showed Bush with a 13-point advantage over Gore.

And almost exactly two years ago, one Gallup poll showed that the GOP was 5-points ahead of the Democrats in the generic ballot–when everyone else in September showed the Democrats 3-8 points ahead (a lead that increased, of course, following the Lehman Brother collapse).


Gallup, itself, should not be a cause of great optimism or pessimism.