The “official” kickoff for the 2020 presidential election is the day after the Nov. 6 midterm elections. Only seven months until another enthralling, action-packed plotline is layered atop the ongoing Trump-TV presidential reality show.
After much thought and consideration about the 2020 presidential race, I am emboldened to predict that California U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris is likely to be the next Democratic presidential nominee. Harris has yet to officially declare, but her actions indicate all systems go.
As a loyal Republican since 1975, conservative writer and political observer, I base my prediction on the following five reasons with the overarching notion that “culture matters way more than politics” – a belief known to be held by President Trump.
1. Kamala Harris is a woman.
Nothing like stating the obvious. However, from the Democratic perspective, especially among women who are the heart, soul, and energy of the party, the “obvious” is a powerful advantage. Harris’ gender unifies all the passionate loathing for what they believe is a misogynist man who currently occupies the White House. Additionally, Democratic women are still enraged that Trump and his “deplorable” followers defeated their female presidential candidate in 2016 while losing the popular vote.
Therefore, untold millions of pussy-hat wearing, Trump-hating woman want to avenge Hillary Clinton’s defeat – yearning for a 2020 female presidential nominee who will dislodge Trump and break that proverbial “glass ceiling.”
Moreover, when the #MeToo movement and growing female empowerment is added to the mix, a Trump vs. Harris 2020 showdown could potentially be the most vicious gender battle in U.S. history. Clinton vs.Trump will look quaint by comparison.
2. Kamala Harris is mixed-race.
This obvious reason is about future empowerment. The Democratic Party is obsessed with racial identity in a country growing more so every day. Thus, as a mixed-race daughter of immigrants, Harris could be viewed culturally as the political “poster child” of America’s future. Her Jamaican father immigrated to the U.S. in 1961 and her mother from India in 1960.
With leaderless Democrats desperately looking for the “next Obama,” Harris is straight from central casting. Amazingly, back in January 2015, a Washington Post headline asked, “Is Kamala Harris the Next Obama?” two years before she became Sen. Harris on Jan. 3, 2017.
Unfortunately, a potential Trump vs. Harris presidential election will inject a racial component into the already raging gender battle discussed above. Remember election year 2008? From the perspective of the liberal media, voters were considered “racist” if they did not support Obama. And then in 2016, “sexist” if one did not vote for Hillary. Thus, get ready for 2020 when casting ballots for Trump will automatically characterize voters as sexist, racist bigots who are against “progress” and “American values.” Which brings us to reason No. 3:
3. Kamala Harris: America’s new “role model.”
Since the mainstream media have been known to build and then reinforce a narrative while slobbering over their preferred presidential candidate (see Obama 2008), Harris’ story arc only needs a White House ending. Her narrative boasts that she is smart, sassy, non-white, well-spoken, experienced and accomplished. Then, we will be continuously reminded of her liberal activist history – a “fighter” with YouTube moments of her “standing up” to white male Republican senators and Trump administration officials (and then fundraising off her “fighting” style). That means from a Democratic perspective, Harris is on her way to becoming America’s new mixed-race female role model.
But first, a conflicted Democratic Party must sort through a busload of presidential candidates. Then watch as the mainstream media hype machine proclaims how Kamala Harris embodies what America “looks like today” – representing the best chance of defeating Trump. Harris 2020 equals Obama 2008 on steroids. And speaking of the 44th president:
4. Obama will help Harris with her campaign.
Back in 2013, President Obama called then-California Attorney General Kamala Harris “the best-looking attorney general.” Obama later apologized, but his glowing admiration for Harris was well-established.
In her less than two years as a U.S. senator, it has been widely reported that Kamala Harris is copying Obama’s political playbook. Naturally, a book is reportedly in the works that would act as a “white paper” for her candidacy. Then cue the national tour that will set the media all-a-twitter and launch her as a political rock star.
Given Obama’s top-dog status within the Democratic Party, he will be an invaluable asset, both in front and behind the scenes, assisting Harris in her quest to secure the nomination. Inevitably, Obama will help Harris try to win his “third term.” Imagine them together on the campaign trail – Obama-mania 2.0 meets Kamala-mania!
5. Kamala Harris has a strategic advantage over President Trump.
Democratic strategists know that Trump’s normal adversarial campaign style, especially name-calling tweets, will be perceived as racist and sexist when used against a woman of color. Harris’ unique persona will likely be politicized and leveraged, figuring heavily into why Harris could quickly rise above the crowded field and win the nomination.
Furthermore, as a former prosecutor, Harris has a big-mouth gutsy style, and when attacked, she will weaponize Trump’s words to her advantage (while cheered on by the liberal media).
Conventional wisdom dictates that Trump will be forced to campaign on “eggshells.” But, since Trump slays conventional wisdom, expect fireworks galore.
However, fireworks do not mean that Harris will win the election. Trump has the power of incumbency that can never be underestimated. As I recently wrote, “Remember that the last three presidents were re-elected and they too were often controversial and unpopular. Meanwhile, the historic reelection rate for incumbents stands at 68.7 percent.”
Finally, these five reasons why Kamala Harris is likely to win the Democratic nomination have nothing to do with policy, the economy or foreign affairs. Instead, they have everything to do with a rapidly changing national culture, an anger hangover from 2016, a polarized nation obsessed with race and gender, and most important, a presidential political pendulum that often swings from one extreme to the other.
Kamala Harris represents that extreme pendulum swing for Democrats in 2020.