For all the sh*t that are flung at them, at least reputable pollsters try to do a decent job. They may mess up the Dem/Rep split, they may mess up % of white vs black/ % of hispanic, but folks like Rasmussen at least give it a yeoman’s effort to be accurate.

Online polls….uh, not so much.

Thought I’d just jot down some random thoughts as to why I believe McCain will win (barring some unforeseen gaffe by him or Palin):

October 9, 2008

Reasons why McCain should win:

First, most people who are called by pollsters (I’ve heard polling companies say 80 per cent) will not participate in a poll. I believe the overwhelming majority of those who hang up the phone are busy conservatives trying to make a living (like me) rather than bored liberals sitting at home munching on potato chips as they await their next government check. The polls have been very, very wrong in the past. On the eve of Reagan’s landslides, it was “too close to call” according to the pollsters and the “mainstream media.” Same for every election since. They said Clinton would beat George Bush elder handily; Clinton received only 43 per cent of the vote. Gore was supposed to win. Kerry was supposed to win. These polls are probably wrong, too.

Second, Barry should be WAY, WAY ahead, based on the economy. But the economy issue cuts two ways. Barry has no experience. McCain is not an incumbent. McCain has experience. The Dems, Barry’s party, control the budget. They have been in control the past two years and performed no oversight of Fannie and Freddie. This message is getting through.

Three, people are SCARED. Will they lay their economic future and the security of themselves, their loved ones and their country (which are intertwined) in the hands of an empty suit or on an old war hero? I think the latter.

With those preliminary observations, consider the following:

Twenty per cent of Hillary voters have said they will vote for McCain. Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild is mobilizing them. As are others. Even if the number is just five per cent, that is significant.

Sarah Palin has super-energized the silent soccer/hockey mom constituency. These women will vote in numbers much larger than in the past. Biden got next to zero votes in the primaries and has been a gaffe-a-day on the campaign trail.

In addition, there are “security moms,” those of both parties who fear for the security of this country. They will vote for McCain.

Obama is not just pro-abortion, he his pro-infanticide. The abortion foes will not vote for him.

Evangelical Christians, generally, will not vote for Obama.

Barry is anti-gun. No politically astute gun owner will vote for him. It was the gun owners who caused the 1994 Republican Revolution that swept the Republicans into power after Clinton’s so-called “Assault Weapons” ban.

When McCain starts talking about the President’s power to appoint federal judges, “moderate” fence-sitters will trend heavily for McCain.

People who want gas prices to go down will vote for McCain. McCain & Palin have embraced “Drill, Baby, Drill” and an “all of the above” approach to creating energy supplies.

Pro-military people (also known as “patriots”) will vote for McCain.

McCain will appeal to moderates who like to see bi-partisanship; Barry has voted only with his party and has never bucked his party.

Barry wants to increase spending in an economic crisis, McCain wants to institute an across the board spending freeze. McCain will appeal to most people who have common sense.

Barry wants to increase taxes on small businesses and the so-called wealthy and corporations who create jobs, McCain does not want to impose such job-killing taxes. McCain will appeal to most people who have common sense.

Barry’s past is full of leftist/terrorist/Muslim associations. McCain’s is that of a war hero.

Barry’s past is full of crazy preachers. McCain’s is not.

Barry is tied up with corrupt Chicago politicians. McCain is not.

Barry suddenly could afford a mansion in Chicago, helped out by a convicted felon. McCain has no such record. McCain has no reason to be tempted by money – his wife is independently wealthy.

Barry has never served his country; McCain is a “Top Gun” Navy fighter-bomber pilot, the best-of-the-best. He has the “right stuff.”

Barry has over $850 million in earmarks, including some that benefitted his wife’s employer and other political cronies. McCain has never voted for an earmark.

Barry has no legislative accomplishments. McCain has many.

Barry has a record of “going along to get along.” McCain has a record as a maverick who bucks his party.

I hate to say it, but Obama is black, McCain is white. Most whites, who overwhelming outnumber blacks, will vote for McCain. That’s just the way it is.

Bottom line: this is McCain’s election to lose. As long as he remains the “steady, firm hand on the tiller during the storm” kind of guy, and keeps Barry having to explain his past and his non-existent policies, he will win.

If McCain does not win, our country is no longer something I’m familiar with. Switzerland will beckon.

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The poll will be reported on PBS and picked up by
mainstream media. It can influence undecided voters
in swing states.

Please do two things — takes 20 seconds.

1) Click on link and vote YES!

Here’s the link:

PBS Sarah Palin Poll

2) Then send this to every McCain-Palin supporter
you know, and urge them to vote and pass it on.

This morning the poll was nearly 50-50. The last thing we need is PBS saying their viewers don’t think Sarah Palin is qualified.

Just in time for Election Day to get some Republicans to stay home:

“Campaign 2004 Predictions

Zogby: Kerry 311, Bush 213…
02-Nov-04
Campaign 2004 Predictions”

excerpt http://archive.democrats.com/preview.cfm?term=Campaign+2004+Predictions

With this election Zogby might use a different strategy, but whatever he does, please do not trust him.

For a guy claiming to want to change people’s minds and convince as many people as he can, you’re going about this the wrong way.

As much as I disagree with the left, the Obama campaign and the zealots who preach it manage to at least attempt to be inclusive. Saying that people who agree with you are normal and the ones who don’t are somehow not normal is not going to get us any points.

Even if you think we’re winning, it doesn’t hurt to play like you’re losing.

Relax… read it again… just in case you’re too uptight today let me spell out it was a joke… Interjection of a little (yes, very little) levity is all.

(Sealed With Some Spit Because A Kiss Wouldn’t Stick)

I do not know how to counteract the MSM and the liberation of media is happening(talk radio, internet blogs) but obviously we have a long way to go. We should be asking ourselves how we attack the MSM bias so we can pursue some solutions, rather than write it off every single time.

Ditto for education. Why should we be spending so much time and effort to “de-program” people to undo all the liberal bias they get in the education system.

She was a huge Liberal, as liberal as they come, and so was I at the time. But one of the reasons she trusted me and asked me to proofread her important letters and speeches was because she needed a second opinion from someone she could trust.

My job was to look very carefully at her statements, and I can honestly say that the most effective moments I had with her came after I read some of her pronouncements and said:

“All of this is great, this part is fantastic, but this sentence goes a little too far, and here’s why.”

Sometimes what you omit from your argument is more important than what you include.

But avoiding statements like yellowcake in Niger are going to be impossible, especially when the statements are true, but are distorted and lied about. My point is the problem isn’t avoiding the verbal gaffe. We’ve seen in this election that it doesn’t matter. If they can’t find a gaffe, they will make one up.

The problem is neutralizing their ability to advance any point or agenda to the electorate, unchallenged.

As far as avoiding verbal mistakes, yes and no. I can tell you that whoever allowed Bush to be photographed in front of that banner should have been pushed overboard for incompetence: you can’t appear to claim victory at the beginning of a long and difficult fight. Evidently that didn’t ring a bell to anyone among the brilliant people surrounding the President. Those are the kinds of things I’m talking about: the devastating PR mistakes that could have been avoided if someone sat for a few seconds and thought: “How is this going to really look in context?”

There are a lot of smart people in this party who thought it was a mistake. It was certainly a mistake in retrospect, and there are enough people who could have nixed the banner at the time if they had been a little more circumspect. That’s what I’m emphasizing here: awareness.

That appearance by the President on the Abraham Lincoln could have gone 180 degrees the other way if there had been one person in the position to say to Bush:

“You know, Mr. President, when that banner is put on the evening news, it might be used to look like you’re saying the war is already won. We should rethink that.”

I would have done it if I had been on the helicopter. At least 1,000 times in the past several years I wish I had been there.

Marginalize and destroy the weapons they use against us. Remove or establish viable competition for the MSM that tells the truth and espouses conservative principles. Take back the education of our youth and remove the socialist propaganda being taught in the schools.

If we fight to insure our voices can be heard by the electorate, then having to be “better than them” in order to avoid the inevitable negative drumbeat becomes less critical. Our people are just as human as the theirs, and will make mistakes. And expecting people to avoid making a verbal mistake that gets turned into weapon is unrealistic.

Beyond that, I’d like to say something that speaks to the way Republicans will need to reorganize themselves after this election:

We’re going to have to become much more coherent, proactive, and unified. We’re going to need to recognize that bad news about Republicans will always be front-paged, highlighted and underlined in 150 point type while bad news about Democrats will be systematically buried, relegated to the B-section of the newspaper, or sugarcoated.

It means that we need to learn a few lessons from the major disasters of the past several years and learn them honestly:

1) Our house needs to be squeaky clean. At the first whiff of trouble concerning any members of Congress, the party leadership will need to take firm and swift action to prevent organizations like C.R.E.W. from dropping them on us at the time of their choosing, usually right before an election. This means that every Republican elected official in this country is going to have to hold themselves — voluntarily — to the highest possible ethical standards and not just that: they will need to understand that in an internet media age, even the appearance of malfeasance is deadly.

2) We are going to have to fight very hard for our core principles of lower taxes, less government intervention, originalist interpretation of the Constitution, strong national defense, and economic opportunity based on the free market. We are going to have to learn to become ten times as vigorous at pointing out the Left’s undermining of these principles and hold them up to shame for it. It’s going to take a level of determination and sophistication that so far we haven’t been able to muster.

3) We absolutely need to STOP the recent trend of Republicans “rebranding” themselves and going off in their own directions. We’ve got at least 100 different voices in this party now all trying to talk at the same time. To accomplish that we will need to select people for leadership positions who are of absolutely unimpeachable leadership quality and who can strike the whip.

4) This party can never again afford to make naive public statements of the kind that have been turned into national catchphrases by our opponents. There can never be another “mission accomplished” photo-op, as innocent as that was. There can never be another sentence in the State of the Union address like the one about Niger. There can never be glib and tone-deaf jokes about “Wall Street Getting Drunk”. Every single Republican in elected office is going to need to become truly sophisticated in their understanding of how their words play in the media.

5) We need to be able to discern and understand the warning signs and take steps to prevent situations from getting worse — before they turn into problems. People in the highest echelons of business have known about the impending financial crisis for more than a year now based on the real estate bubble, and Republicans didn’t do enough to talk about it openly and make it stick to the Democrats. Instead what we did, in terms of public perception, was react to a crisis that had already occurred. We’re much smarter than that, but for some reason we’re not applying it at the right time. We should have been talking about the real estate bubble and the impending financial crisis in October of last year. It continued to snowball, and we are getting hammered because of that.

6) We are going to have to turn the tables on the Democrats in the same way they did to us after 2005, except harder and smarter. There can never again be a person like Tom Delay who attempts to invoke the Federal Government over someone like Terri Schiavo to distract attention from his own problems. EVER.

That does not mean that this party needs to abandon pro-life principles. It means that we can’t grandstand on them in a way that will backfire on us. And backfire they did.

It’s going to be a difficult time, ladies and gentlemen. We’re going to be in the minority and outgunned and outflanked by a greater margin than we are now. But so was Washington during the Revolutionary War. We need some of the best minds in our Party to help heal the divisions and get us moving together again.

My comment was meant to be directed towards the fact that ACORN was registering any and all (multiple times) so that it is possible to change the weighting used for liberal polls.

Not counting the potential voter fraud.

Thanks for pointing it out though Rick. I would hate for anyone to get the idea I drink Kool-Aid and wear a tinfoil hat.

Neither Hillary Clinton nor John McCain attended a hate-America church for 20 years or got started in politics at a terrorist’s house. What Barack Obama has done is very strange and ominous.