Oil Spill Reality Check, Part II


Even under the most conservative of assumptions, this oil spill is very disperse. That's good news, actually.

The Exxon Valdez, it ain’t. But when I say that, itseems to upset some people.

Only by being rational about assessing the environmental threat from the Deepwater Horizon spill can we be prepared to deal with the consequences.

Journalists, scientists, Congressmen and bureaucrats have been jockeying to see who can make the most calamitous prediction. As an engineer, I compulsively check their claims (because I know that the journalists are incapable of it, the environmentalists refuse to do it, and those in government are motivated by a power-grab).

From the Old Grey Lady:

Giant Plumes of Oil Forming Under the Gulf

Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick in spots. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given. …

The plumes are depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, worrying scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes. …

Given their size, the plumes cannot possibly be made of pure oil, but more likely consist of fine droplets of oil suspended in a far greater quantity of water, Dr. Joye said. She added that in places, at least, the plumes might be the consistency of a thin salad dressing.

Yumm. Pass the balsamic vinaigrette. Even better, let’s check the math…

So just one of the plumes is 10 mi x 3 mi x 300 feet thick? That seems really big.

In fact, it’s 2.5 E+11 cubic feet, or 45 billion barrels of “salad dressing”.

Let’s take a third of that, to allow for thinning of this plume in all dimensions: that leaves 15 billion barrels of oil & sea water emulsion.

The extreme high end of the rate of spill is 80,000 barrels per day (not that I believe that number, which is sixteen times the “official” estimate). Over 28 days, that’s 2.24 million barrels of oil to date.

If all the oil from the biggest spill estimate were in this single plume, crude oil accounts for less than 0.00015 of the volume (that’s 0.015%, or 150 parts per million). That’s about three drops per liter of sea water.

Even given all the most conservative possible assumptions, that’s a mighty weak salad dressing.

We know it’s not right. Much of the oil has made it to the surface, and a lot of that has evaporated. Some has been burned, some has been recovered. You have to question whether oil in water in such a dilute concentration would have the oxygen-depleting effect described in the article. And remember, this is only one of several plumes.

Folks, this is good news. It means the dispersant is working, breaking up the oil into tiny droplets and dispersing them widely. Mother Nature handles dispersed oil all the time, oil from the natural seeps that account for well over half the oil in the marine environment. Bacteria just love the stuff.

Another thing to remember is that agricultural runoff creates a life-choking anoxic “dead zone” in the Gulf of Mexico every summer. The size of these oxygen-depleted zones is usually compared to a Northeastern state (usu. Connecticut or New Jersey, for some reason). The oxygen depletion is a result of too much algae, which is a result of too much nitrogen fertilizer being used in the Midwest, which is a result of our government’s misguided insistence on using food as a motor fuel – corn-based ethanol.

But that’s the topic of another diary.

Oil Spill Reality Check, Part I is here.

Cross-posted to VladEnBlog.


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Thank you Vladimir

Scope (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 3:34PM EST (link)

for keeping us up to date with truth and “facts” about the current state of the spill. Brit Hume, on the Sunday panel had also said that the natural seepage in the ocean accounts for much of the oil in the ocean. He also brought up the fact that it is the tanker’s, bringing in foreign oil that also makes up for some oil in the ocean.

Just heard today that some tar balls that have washed up in Florida are being tested, as some of the tar balls being found have nothing to do with the BP spill.

Anything to take our fossil fuel resources off the table, and make the US look like nothing but bumblin bufoons to the rest of the fossil fuel seeking world.

 

Don't confuse people with facts, Vladimir. nt

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 4:02PM EST (link)

In Vino Veritas

 

It's an excellent piece, and I stole a bunch of it...

MacAoidh (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 4:24PM EST (link)

…for the latest Hayride update on the spill.

You are correct in your assertion in this and other posts that the media’s oversensationalizing of what is already a giant story is obscene. It also does unwarranted damage to folks people like Shepard Smith say they’re looking out for. Tourism and the seafood business will be hurt more from a perception of harm when none occurs than the spill itself, but naturally that won’t be any concern of the airheads on TV who want to turn the Gulf into the La Brea tarpits for the purpose of Nielsen ratings.



Check out MacAoidh’s commentary on Louisiana and national politics at TheHayride.com

Steal away, my freind... nt

Steve Maley (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 4:58PM EST (link)

The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.

 
 

Good points

charlienosurf Tuesday, May 18th at 4:58PM EST (link)

Too many talking special interests out there and way too much speculation, of course that’s never stops the talking heads or MSM from pushing out those special interest talking points.

 

NT

charlienosurf Tuesday, May 18th at 5:03PM EST (link)

Well I sure butchered my spelling on the above post..that’s what I get for typing while listening to all these windbags during the commerce comm’s live stream on C-Span.

You're not the only one who's spelling-challenged today... nt

Steve Maley (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 6:03PM EST (link)

The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.

copyright has expired on GC's (self-serving): spelling is the hob-

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 6:10PM EST (link)

goblin of puny minds!

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

 
 
 

simple, natural solution

cooler Tuesday, May 18th at 5:30PM EST (link)

not surprised I haven’t seen this mentioned here:

hay is a natural solution to the oil spill. It absorbs and removes the oil without pumping harmful chemicals into the ocean. It’s been used succesfully in gulf oil spills before. wonder why it’s not being used now?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eck8hEhzNp0

I'm told there is a good chance they'll use hay...

MacAoidh (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 5:44PM EST (link)

…in some near-shore cleanup operations.

You need heavy oil to make that work, though. It’s not a great solution for light sheen.



Check out MacAoidh’s commentary on Louisiana and national politics at TheHayride.com

1969 redux

cooler Tuesday, May 18th at 6:06PM EST (link)

all I know is it was used successfully in the 1969 Santa Barbara oil spill

http://www.rense.com/general90/barb.htm

 
 
 

The History of the Ixtoc Spill Would Tell Us More Than the Media Favorite, Valdez

polifrog (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 6:13PM EST (link)

This Fabius Maximus post is enlightening.
http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2010/05/17/spills/

For instance: Valdez was actually the 35th largest spill on record.

The largest spill (Ixtoc) was a similar to the Horizon spill in two distinctive ways. It was a deep water spill and it was located in the Gulf.

In comparison to Valdez the Ixtoc spill was (if averaging the lower and higher estimates) 26.25 times larger than the Valdez spill.

This fixation on the Valdez spill does not do our nation any good.

polifrog

Ah, but Valdez produced such graphic images...

acat (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 9:46PM EST (link)

and we all know the news media has devolved to “Look, shiny!”

Mew

——
self-portrait

“All that is gold does not glitter, not all those who wander are lost”. –Tolkein

 
 

Vlad kick this about in your head for a min

txgho1911 Tuesday, May 18th at 8:11PM EST (link)

They cut off and set a valve on the DP sicking out of the riser. Would it have made sense to connect to that from topside and possible pulled what the straw is getting now? DP is likely broken but that is still upstream from the open riser.

If they started a draw via that DP they could then dump a wet barite slug (no gel) to settle and plug up the broken riser. This would minimize the seawater intrusion.
If they can keep the riser negative via DP and even the straw also they might eliminate the other leaks in the riser kinks.

DP is built to several different specs. Shears on smaller land well stacks will not cut some of the stronger DP they may have available to use. That would be a toolpusher’s job not to use the higher grade DP without adequate BOPs.
The DP is likely broken at every point in the riser that the bend exceeded the DP ability to bend. Bigger pipe bends less.

That DP they caped is likely broken within the riser a short distance from the end of riser. Deeper in the riser than that straw. I would still see benefit in plugging the end of the riser with a pliable weight material to avoid some fancy custom fit cap. Any overflow would still come out but the inflow of seawater could be minimized.

One more idea: They could base an electric pump on the seafloor or even two in series. One to draw from DP and straw. Small reservoir between. One pump pushing to surface.

All because:
What seems to have happened was several avoidable mistakes made while the company man is taking every shortcut under the sun to bring the job in on budget.

1. Short cementing on casings and liners.
2. Short on cement plugs.
3. A total disregard for anomalous BOP tests.
4. Short on time waiting on cement.
5. Short on mud as they unload to transport. Replacing the mud with sea water on a live well.

Vladimir, I learn so much from your diaries

klondike Tuesday, May 18th at 8:31PM EST (link)

Thank you.

 

I hate to speculate too much.

Steve Maley (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 12:24AM EST (link)

Impossible to know what shape the drill pipe is in. The BOPs, I heard BTW, are rated to shear 9″ drill collars.

Live well? 60 Minutes treated it like it was live but as far as I know they had just run & cemented a tapered string of casing. Should have tested like a jug. I don’t think you can explain very much without assuming the cement is at least part of the problem.

Also, with a high pressure well, the conventional wisdom would be to run liner, test top of same, then run tieback string. A long production string saves a couple of days but brings your annulus to the surface.

The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.

 
 

May I chime in with an on-the-ground report

Jack_Savage (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 9:32PM EST (link)

My family and I vacationed near Appalachicola, FL last week. For those who do not know, this is a fishing / shrimping / oystering village on the gulf coast of Florida, east of Panama City and southwest of Tallahassee. It is as authentic as it gets, with the locals making their living as much from the gulf as they do from the tourists. The beaches in the area are “ours” in that we have been vacationing there for twenty-five years. We absolutely love everything about it, especially the abundant marine life. As a matter of fact, Florida State University has their Coastal Marine Laboratory nearby.

Needless to say, when I heard about the oil spill I was quite disturbed for a couple of reasons. First, the wackos will use this until kingdom come to agitate against any drilling anywhere. BP should have been able to handle its business after the tragic accident occurred, and it did not. That is a simple fact.

Second, I was very upset about the threat to oyster beds, grass flats, the bays and islands and the sugar white sands of nearby beaches such as Destin. As it turns out, most people who were planning to vacation in Florida were upset too, and cancelled. We did not. I figured I would either help the local economy by spending every dime I could, or help clean the place up.

There isn’t a drop of oil anywhere near the place. Not a drop. Not one fisherman or shrimper I talked to had seen a thing, no matter how far they had gone out. The oil simply is not there. The beach was beautiful, the shrimp, fish and oysters were great, but the good people of the area, to put it very mildly, were on edge.

They have been interviewed and queried and asked about something that is simply not a reality until they are all sick and tired of it. The media has played this to a point where visitors aren’t coming down, people aren’t eating seafood, and the locals are suffering very nearly as much as they would if the beaches and gulf were three feet deep in oil.

Listen to Vladimir. From now on, I will.

Charlie Crist

txgho1911 Tuesday, May 18th at 9:50PM EST (link)

Deserves some of the credit also.

Um..

Neil Stevens (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 11:30PM EST (link)

No, no he doesn’t.

Why would he?

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

Neil, he meant Crist deserves credit for clearing the beaches.

Steve Maley (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 12:27AM EST (link)

Probably cornered the market on Coppertone.

The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.

Ah, gotcha (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 4:47PM EST (link)

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 
 
 
 
 

Kudos to the WaPo on their discovery of new oil

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Tuesday, May 18th at 10:23PM EST (link)

Who needs drilling when you can just tap the 100 billion barrels of oil in the plumes?

 

Oil Spill

jgmahuron Wednesday, May 19th at 10:07AM EST (link)

It seems to me that the thing that should have taken place after all the oil workers on the rig were rescued the oil slick should have been allowed to burn. The government response was too slow. And the largest calculations from the leaked pipes has been 70,000 barrels of oil a day aired on local TV. JGM K9JWJ

70,000 barrels is such a ridiculous number as to offend...

MacAoidh (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 3:49PM EST (link)

…anyone with even a passing knowledge of the oil business.

I’m not sure there’s a well anywhere in the world capable of putting out 70,000 barrels a day – much less a well with a half-closed BOP and a crimped marine riser through which oil is flowing – in the face of the downward pressure of 5,000 feet of sea water.

There might be 10,000 barrels a day coming out of that well, or even 15,000. Anything more than that? Seriously unlikely. Academic clowns running around with numbers like 70,000 are nothing more than attention whores trying to get on TV.



Check out MacAoidh’s commentary on Louisiana and national politics at TheHayride.com

Now you've got a couple of idiots saying 90 to 100,000 bbls.

Steve Maley (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 4:52PM EST (link)

Unlike The Price Is Right, there is no penalty for bidding too high.

You are correct, macaoidh. The BOP is partially closed. It’s hard to believe that this well that hasn’t even been properly completed is the world’s most prolific oil well.

And…oh, noes! It might reach Cuba!

Not to worry. Those cats will pick it up, refine it, & run their ’55 Chevys on it.

The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.

I toke a look at today's map on the spill from the Houston Chronicle

Richard Mullins (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 5:02PM EST (link)

It doesn’t look like it moving much and seems to be contained. BP is said to 3,000 Barrels a Day from this spill, so it might be gone sometime next month. Those stupid greenies don’t know what they’re talking about.

Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
Rmullins Pics
Rpmullins Twitter

Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.

Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.

 
 
 
 

ANWR Spill

Warrior (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 11:26AM EST (link)

Ya know, we could have been pumping Millions of barrels out of a two (2) sq mile footprint in Alaska. The surrounding land is a frozen nightmare in winter and a swampy hellhole with mosquitos the size of your head in summer — and no human or economic development for hundreds of miles around.

However, due to Greenie propaganda of Caribou playfully prancing around in a verdant valley of natural wonder (nowhere near ANWR), a REAL playground and economic hub for actual HUMAN BEINGS is now being threatened.

Thanks a lot algore.

Just sayin’…

“Racial criteria are irrational, irrelevant, [and] odious to our way of life.” — Thurgood Marshall for the NAACP Legal Defense Fund in the 1950 Supreme Court case of McLaurin v. Oklahoma

Well, you can initially thank Jimmy Carter and

Achance (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 12:14PM EST (link)

the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) of 1980 (IIRC). The US Government never really accepted Alaska’s Statehood Act and the BLM and BIA were very, very reluctant to give up their hold on the State. Eisenhower did some of the initial land transfers and they were then endlessly stalled under Kennedy and Johnson and by the Democrat controlled Congress during Nixon/Ford. The TransAlaska Pipeline authorization only passed the Senate by VP Agnew’s vote. Land transfers were then caught up in Alaska Native land claims, so the Natives got first dibbs on the land not already transferred to the State or reserved by the US, parks, National Forests, etc., then under Carter, the US held land transfers to the State of Alaska yet again so that the US could get first dibbs on the remaining lands. The US selected its lands through ANILCA and turned huge pieces of Alaska into wilderness that can never be developed no matter what wealth may lie beneath it. Some areas, mostly areas thought to be good oil prospects, were left out of wilderness or park status but were styled “wildlife refuges” such as ANWR (Alaska National Wildlife Refuge). None of them have any special wildlife and most of them have practically no wildlife at all. ANWR could not be distinguished in any way from the State lands open to oil developement around them or the nearby Native lands also available to development. What some in the Murkowski Administration wanted to do was plop a drilling rig down on State land right next to the ANWR boundary, but it would have sent the Greenies and Democrats into a frenzy and tied us up in lawsuits for years and we had enough troubles. Theoretically, the “refuges” would be accessible to development, but practically they are not and are not likely to be in the foreseeable future.

As an aside, at the heigth of his “get along, go along” period Senator Stevens actually backed ANILCA holding that it was the best deal the State could get and its passage would allow us to finish our land selections. Well, we rubes back here in the district thought that the only thing Ted was interested in was being a member of the club and had his eye on being minority leader in the next Congress. We thought passing it would guarantee that Alaska only got the scraps and development of some good prospects would be blocked, perhaps forever. It became a real issue in the ’80 US Senate race when Mike Gravel (D-Alaska) then seeking reelection was adamantly opposed to ANILCA and stated openly that he thought Carter would lose to Reagan and Alaska would get a better deal in the next Congress. Stevens literally campaigned against Gravel in the primary because of his opposition to ANILCA.

I was working for the AFL-CIO back then and we backed Gravel, no, actually we owned Gravel. I helped, along with several prominent Republicans, raise the money to put double truck ads in most of the major papers in the Country, starting with the WaPo, with a screaming headline across two full pages of, “Senator Stevens Please Come Home,’ followed by a message of opposition to ANILCA, and the names of practically everybody who was anybody in Alaska business and politics – on both sides of the aisle. In one of my “I Love Me” boxes around here I still have the outraged telegram I got from Stevens very early in the morning the first day the ad ran. Fortunately for Stevens, he wasn’t up again until ’84, but even then, he was made to remember his fecklessness on ANILCA and had one of his few close races before he was defeated by the US Justice Department in ’08,

In Vino Veritas

Yeah, politics

Warrior (Diary) Monday, May 24th at 1:24PM EST (link)

Unfortunately, now we have a truly rich wetlands, economic powerhouse and tourism megasite threatened, not to mention the Eastern Seaboard should this thing be carried around in the loop current, assuming that’s not a lot of left wing hogwash.

Maybe we can all go live and vacation in ANWR next. I hear that mosquito creole is very good, as is mosquito and grits, mosquito gumbo, etc.

BTW Art, sorry it’s taken so long to respond. My business has picked up considerably and I have been neglecting RedState of late. Gotta’ make hay while the sun shines though, ya’ know…

“Racial criteria are irrational, irrelevant, [and] odious to our way of life.” — Thurgood Marshall for the NAACP Legal Defense Fund in the 1950 Supreme Court case of McLaurin v. Oklahoma

 
 
 

Said the liberals...

itrytobenice (Diary) Wednesday, May 19th at 12:03PM EST (link)

“Math is soooo hard.” :(

Proper grammar saves lives.

Let’s eat Grandma.
Let’s eat, Grandma.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

 

They showed a live feed of the leak today and fish were swimming around, LOL

Common_Cents (Diary) Thursday, May 20th at 2:02PM EST (link)

they said some congressional site had a link to the live feed. I swear I saw fish swimming around plain as day.

Obama=Golfer in Chief, Leading from, behind, the Back Nine.
Leaders don’t create movements. Movements create leaders. Get involved. Your future depends on it.
Govt “invests” YOUR tax money for POLITICAL return rather than economic return.